Things on the ground right now suggest that the Gaza Strip is right on the edge of its biggest geographical and political split in recent history.
It is not just about ceasefire lines or new maps anymore. This has turned into a full overhaul of who controls what and who has influence inside the Strip. It is changing the core of how geography plays into power in Gaza and how internal and external forces relate to each other.
Ever since the latest ceasefire deal was signed earlier this month, what is going on is not just a quiet spell. It is more like a trial run for a fresh political setup in the Strip.
This setup spreads out influence and locks in a situation that feels a lot like a real division into two zones. One would be under direct Israeli security watch, and the other would be left to a shaky local management run by the Hamas terror group with a tight grip.
Hamas went along with this latest deal, backed by Washington and some regional players, but it did so grudgingly. From what I see, the terror group entered the ceasefire and long-term calm arrangements out of direct fear of broad US sanctions that could cut off the key supplies they need to administer the area.
Certainly, Hamas did not choose to agree to the deal. For the terror group, war and ongoing clashes are what keep them alive and in charge. Maintaining the death and tension going is what gives their role legitimacy.
The brutal and frightening events occurring on the streets of Gaza support this interpretation and are typical of how Hamas operates. International media reports have confirmed that its members are carrying out public executions of dozens of people right out in the open – claiming that they are collaborating with Israel.
The message that Hamas is sending to people in the Strip can only be summarized harshly: “You are the fuel for our power, and your blood is what we use to push away our fears and secure our hold.”
Even more revealing is how the regional capitals that back the group are remaining silent about these crimes.
None have issued any public statement condemning or even mentioning the mass killings, almost as though they had given their silent approval. This quiet is not accidental; it is a deliberate stance. Those countries would rather hold onto their sway by keeping Hamas as the power on the ground – without engaging in confrontation with the Trump administration.
Washington has hinted multiple times about imposing direct sanctions on anyone funding Hamas activity – which is likely why leaders in those supporting countries are walking a fine line between needing to keep Hamas as a regional asset and fearing US backlash.
PAST ACTIONS show that the United States will not hold back from going after financial outfits or political figures tied to arming terror groups. Hamas is their Palestinian pawn in these schemes, and losing it would be a strategic hit. So, these capitals will back any setup that keeps Hamas in the picture, even if it is just as a small “North Gaza Emirate.”
The most probable outcome looks like this: Over the next six to 12 months, completely disarming terrorist Hamas will fail, due to logistical hurdles. They will show some flexibility in southern Gaza, but cling firmly to the north as a no-go zone.
Clearly, Hamas is trying to communicate to everyone that northern Gaza belongs to them, and they will fight to the death for it. At the same time, the Netzarim corridor will gradually transform into something like the blue line in Lebanon.
Then, in two or three years, the world will say that a split management system in Gaza is the practical, down-to-earth way forward. Obviously, real rebuilding will not begin while this split setup continues. Donors from around the world will not invest funds into a spot controlled by an armed group that lacks international recognition.
One could argue that this situation was not just forced on Palestinians from the outside. Their own choices contributed, backed by regional powers and their fractured leaders who adhere to the dream of the cause, of “freeing” “Palestine” and Jerusalem. But really, they are just advancing the agendas of bigger players.
Palestinians don't control their fate
Today, Palestinians, for all their chants, do not truly control their fate; they are mostly carrying out what others want. They hold on to resistance as some hazy belief in triumph, but at heart, they are just pawns in an endless regional contest full of suffering, with no room for humanity.
WHAT MAKES the whole picture even darker is that the regional forces claiming to stand with Palestinians do not actually want their suffering to end. They thrive on it staying alive.
Each fresh rocket or body pulled from the debris gives them another excuse to intensify their rhetoric and defend their role. Worse yet, this violent reality has turned into something everyone wants, not as a forever fix, but because it keeps serving their long-term goals.
The Strip is moving into a fresh stage where this unspoken division becomes solidified. Every key player sees it as a short-term fix that brings peace without anyone claiming a win. Hamas maintains its “ruling” position, even if it is just over part of Gaza. Israel secures its security needs without the hassle of a full takeover. And the backing regional countries maintain their influence in the Palestinian game.
So, without any formal wording, Gaza could enter this “two strips” phase. Accepting things as they are replaces actual decisions or deals, and in my view, this temporary split is the logical result of a fight that has not yet come to a real end.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.