As the days pass, and at least for now, it is becoming increasingly clear how significant last week’s joint Israeli-Lebanese-American statement was as a diplomatic achievement for Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the delegation led by Israel’s Ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, succeeded in weakening the link Iran had sought to establish between the situation in Lebanon and the negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
The joint statement called for a ceasefire, but on the condition that Hezbollah withdraw from southern Lebanon and refrain from firing on Israel. In effect, the wording reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself while remaining acceptable to the Lebanese side.
The agreement also referenced the launch of a Lebanese pilot program aimed at disarming Hezbollah, but more importantly, it reflected Lebanon’s clear desire to send a message to Iran: do not interfere in our affairs.
Another achievement of the ceasefire was the prevention of a scenario that had concerned Israeli officials: an Iranian demand that the United States pressure Israel to withdraw from parts of Lebanon as part of the negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon dependent on Hezbollah disarmament
The agreement explicitly states that the extent of any Israeli withdrawal depends solely on the success of the Lebanese pilot program to disarm Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
The strike on a Hezbollah command center in Beirut – the first time in many weeks that Israel targeted a building rather than a specific individual or site in the heart of the Dahiyeh district – was also a direct consequence of that statement and the round of meetings held in Washington last week.
An Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post that the ceasefire understandings include a provision that if Hezbollah fires into Israeli territory, Israel will respond by targeting its command centers in Dahiyeh.
Another Israeli official clarified in a conversation with us that while Israel informed the Americans in advance, it did not seek a green light for the operation.
Could Trump change his mind?
This development also highlights the shift that has taken place in Washington – from the reportedly tense conversation between Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump last week, during which Trump reportedly instructed the prime minister not to bomb targets in Dahiyeh – to the events that unfolded on Sunday.
So, at least for now, Israel appears to have succeeded in halting the wave of Iranian demands regarding Lebanon and in establishing a new strategic equation. Could Trump change his mind?
Certainly – this is Trump, after all. How likely is that to happen? Now that the agreement has received approval from the highest levels of the US administration, including its most senior officials, the chances appear lower for the time being, but they have not disappeared.