Israel just made a decision that most of the world barely noticed, and which those who did largely misunderstood. Yet historians may look back at this moment as one of Israel’s most consequential geopolitical maneuvers in recent years.
On December 26, Israel became the first country to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state. For over three decades, it had existed in a strange diplomatic limbo as stable, democratic, and pro-Western, yet unrecognized by any nation. Until Israel broke the silence.
This matters because it isn’t just a humanitarian gesture or a symbolic diplomatic act. It is a strategic move with regional consequences stretching from Gaza to the Red Sea to the Mediterranean to Africa and directly into the heart of the global competition between Islamist blocs and Western-aligned democracies.
Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 following a brutal civil war. Unlike Somalia, which remains plagued by corruption, piracy, Jihadist al-Shabaab terrorism, and constant instability, Somaliland built democratic institutions, conducted multiple peaceful transitions of power, maintains its own currency and military, and openly aligns with the West and with moderate regional actors, such as the United Arab Emirates.
In other words, Somaliland is what Western governments claim they want Middle Eastern and African states to be. And yet, for 34 years, no one recognized it. Until now.
The reaction in Hargeisa was instantaneous: fireworks, flags, dancing in the streets. A nation long ignored was finally acknowledged – not by the United Nations, not by the European Union, not by Washington – but by the Israel.
This tells us something important: The Jewish state is no longer waiting for global approval before shaping the region. It is acting as a sovereign regional power.
Somaliland sits along the Gulf of Aden, at the mouth of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. A third of global shipping passes nearby.
Over the past two years, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have attacked shipping lanes there – threatening, and at times crippling, global commerce. The US strikes on Houthi targets last year were not about Israel – they were about keeping global trade flowing.
Somaliland’s strategic Berbera deep-water port, recently expanded with UAE investment, combined with Israeli security architecture, could become a Western foothold opposite Houthi-controlled Yemen – a pressure valve on Iranian influence and a counterweight to radical Islamist penetration in the Horn of Africa.
Israel didn’t just recognize a state, it secured a strategic doorway at one of the world’s maritime chokepoints.
Greece-Cyprus-Israel triangle
Days before recognizing Somaliland, Israel hosted the 10th Israel-Greece-Cyprus Trilateral Summit. There, the three states formalized cooperation in energy, joint naval drills, missile defense, and – crucially – discussed the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor (IMEC), a US-led plan designed to route trade to Europe through Israel, to counter the CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative.
This is not random. It is part of a coherent strategic realignment.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus strengthen Western energy and security architecture.
In the Red Sea/Horn of Africa, Israel, the UAE, and Somaliland open a pro-West corridor opposite Yemen.
Both constrain the influence of one actor: Turkey.
Turkey’s Islamist axis vs Israel’s emerging democratic bloc
Turkey is deeply involved in Somalia, the very state that claims Somaliland as part of its territory. Turkey trains Somali forces, builds infrastructure, and positions itself as a patron to Islamist currents there. Turkey hosts Hamas leadership in Istanbul, backs Muslim Brotherhood networks, partners closely with Qatar, and supports hardline Islamist factions in Syria and Libya.
The Somaliland recognition struck directly at Turkey’s sphere of influence. No wonder Ankara and Doha immediately condemned Israel’s move.
This is the same logic behind Israeli support for Druze, Kurds, and other non-Islamist groups in Syria, and behind recent Israeli strikes aimed at blocking Turkish-installed air defense infrastructure there.
Which brings us to Gaza.
The US has been advocating for Turkey to play a role in post-war Gaza. Israel has rejected the idea unequivocally.
Why?
Because Turkey does not enter places to stabilize them – it enters to influence them. This is what happened in northern Syria and Libya. Once Turkish troops arrive, they rarely leave. A Turkish “peacekeeping presence” in Gaza would risk turning the enclave into a Turkish protectorate, governed by the same Islamist networks Ankara supports elsewhere.
Turkey wants influence along Israel’s border. Israel is now drawing a hard red line: A new reality in the Middle East. Israel’s recent moves all point in the same direction:
- Greece-Cyprus-Israel alliance constrains Turkey in the Mediterranean.
- Recognition of Somaliland constrains Turkey in the Horn of Africa.
- Rejection of Turkish troops in Gaza constrains Turkey at Israel’s doorstep.
- Security ties with minorities in Syria block Turkish-backed Islamist consolidation.
- Air defense exports to Europe grow Israeli leverage without relying on the United States.
Israel is building alliances, trade routes, security frameworks, and regional architecture from Athens to Hargeisa.
Regional superpower
This is not the behavior of an isolated state; it is the behavior of a regional superpower
With all of this unfolding on the eve of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with US President Donald Trump. Israel arrives not as a petitioning client, but as a state with leverage, partners, and strategic assets stretching across seas and continents.
Turkey sees it. The Arab world sees it. Europe sees it. And Washington – sooner or later – will see it too.
Israel is not waiting for permission anymore. It is building the future of the Middle East.
The writer is the executive director of Israel365 Action and cohost of the Shoulder to Shoulder podcast.