Gulf nations are blinking at a once-in-a-generation chance to reshape the Middle East.
With drone and missile attacks from Iran, nearby Arab nations have felt increasing pressure since the war began. Diplomatic tones shifted from asking the US and Israel not to attack to outright condemnation of the regime before shifting again to pushing to be left out of the conflict.
The language would be more fitting from Brussels than Riyadh. Most leaders always have the next election cycle somewhere within their thought process. These leaders don’t. Meaning that joining a war to wipe out the Iranian regime shouldn't be an impossible choice. It should be an obvious one.
Inside Arab countries, the delicate balance that keeps the non-democratic systems stable looked to bethe top priority. It became extremely clear as influencers in Dubai, in particular, began posting videos on social media containing the simple, short message: "I’m not scared because our leaders protect us." Many have speculated that, given the scale of the online campaign, it was backed and pushed by leadership.
So, as investors begin to rethink the Gulf, tourists scramble for evacuation flights, citizens back away from a potential protracted conflict, and Western media outlets write sensationalist pieces painting the region as the dusty warzone they grew up with, Gulf nations appear, at least for now, to be taking a blinkered, narrow view.
They like the world order as it is.
China and Russia have a regional partner for their interests; Israel stays stuck fighting endless wars with Iranian proxies, local business deals come to their doorstep, and they get to play a familiar regional game with less competition.
In the long term, though, this makes little sense.
While Trump has changed his messaging depending on the prevailing wind, or which media outlet he’s talking to, Israelis understand the regional implications, even if they’re not saying it out loud.
All terror-paved roads lead to Tehran, and if October 7 has taught Israelis anything, a “mowing the grass” strategy delays deaths, has untold consequences for perceptions, and most importantly, cannot bring stability.
For Gulf nations, their strategy is this exact poor gamble: contain the conflict and hope the world quickly forgets drones hitting fancy hotels, so money and oil keep flowing.
At the same time, though, these countries are squandering what makes them unique: their lack of democracy. With no fear of ballot boxes holding the keys to power, leaders could act decisively.
They could lead the Middle East into a safer future and join in militarily, freeing the oppressed Iranian people, and creating the kind of regional stability thought impossible for generations.
It wouldn’t be an easy decision, but it could actually work in their favor.
Post-Islamic Republic, major multi-national deals would be needed to solve the crises compounded by decades of mismanagement by the mullahs. Iranian expats from around the globe would come flooding back.
This would show regional stability far more than any untested containment strategy.
Europe and Asia had their Germany and Japan moments, respectively. This is the Gulf’s Iran moment, and autocratic leaders, despite their drawbacks, are best placed to tackle it.