The ceasefire in Gaza, marking an end to a multi-front, two-year war in the Middle East, looks promising. While we’ve seen a somewhat shaky start, this is to be expected in the aftermath of long and intense fighting.
I would not go as far as branding this the long-sought “peace in the Middle East” (in all caps) as President Donald Trump has. Nevertheless, this is a major step in the right direction for the region.
As the guns go silent, Israel must now work quickly to pivot back towards peacemaking.
It is not always that stars are aligned in Israel, in the wider Middle East, and particularly in Washington in a way that favors peacemaking.
However, this is such a moment, and Israel must do all it can to seize it.
Prioritizing calm and stability on all fronts for a substantial period of time is a first and crucial step. However, in the eyes of Israel’s most coveted potential peace partner, it is not enough.
Saudi Arabia is a major player in the Muslim world that is seen as the “crown jewel” for Israeli peace enthusiasts. The countries were already moving in the direction of normalization prior to the breakout of the recent war.
In July 2022, Saudi Arabia opened its airspace to Israeli civilian flights, a long-awaited move that transformed travel to the Far East for millions of Israelis.
In September 2023, just two weeks prior to October 7, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated, in a rare interview with American media, that the two countries “get closer every day” to normalization.
Saudi-Israel normalization: timing is everything
The peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia is more or less written, and the only remaining question is timing.
With the war all but over, the Saudis now look to Israel’s political calendar and would like to see Israel face its internal reckoning over the events of the last two years.
They are interested in seeing a new government formed in Israel, even if it still includes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel’s next election is currently on schedule for October 27, 2026, but may be pushed up, as elections in Israel usually are. Netanyahu’s publicly stated intention is to allow his government to serve its full term.
To that end, he’s working to push through controversial legislation surrounding the mandatory conscription, or lack thereof, of ultra-Orthodox males, and to pass a national budget by the March 2026 deadline.
Netanyahu's bet is that stabilizing Israeli politics, at least for one year, will convince the Saudis that now is the time for normalization. However, his chances of winning this bet are slim at best.
First, the Saudis see a soft resetting of Israel’s political system as a necessity for peace, from a private viewpoint as well as a public one.
The same government that has led Israel through a two-year, seven-front war is not the one to which they would extend an olive branch.
The sharp rhetoric coming from officials in Israel’s current government, including the comments made by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich a few weeks back, makes that even clearer.
Publicly, the optics of signing a peace treaty before the Israeli political system has had the chance to change dramatically, make this an undesirable move for the royal family.
Another key reason the Saudis insist on seeing a new Israeli government prior to normalization is that they expect it to make more concessions on the Palestinian front.
These concessions will provide the Saudi royal family with something to claim credit for in exchange for normalized ties.
Reports that the Saudis will insist on a fully implemented two-state solution before normalization are misleading, as they recognize that the Palestinians lack the necessary leadership to build and run a country of their own and will need to face their own political reckoning.
Finally, the Saudi leadership’s desire to delay peace until after Israel’s next election is rooted in its reluctance to play a role in Netanyahu’s political campaign.
The prime minister’s re-election bid in 2019 boasted posters, signs, and billboards of his photo-ops with the likes of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi, with a text underneath proclaiming, “Netanyahu – a different league!”
The last thing the crown prince would like to see is himself portrayed in the same way.
For these reasons, normalization with Saudi Arabia will only happen after Israel goes through its next election cycle. In Washington, conditions that are friendly toward facilitating this historic deal exist but aren’t guaranteed to last.
Israel, which is now entering an election year, would be wise to face its political reckoning sooner rather than later. After all, the stars can only remain aligned for so long.
The writer is director of legislative affairs at the Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET) in Washington.