“Gaza ceasefire outlook darkens as Israel delays aid and Hamas tightens grip,” an Arab News headline read on Wednesday.
This is one of a series of such reports that appear to illustrate regional countries’ concerns that the developments in Gaza are not moving in the right direction. These media reports reflect the thinking in these states.
Their pessimism is understandable. The question is what these states hope to do about it. Many of them wanted the war to end. They sent delegations to Egypt to work with the US toward this goal. However, many of these countries continue to appear to be hedging on what may come next.
The Gulf states have a lot to offer in terms of potential support for Gaza. Nevertheless, as long as they believe the plan to end the war lacks substance, they may not move forward, except to pay lip service to the deal.
While the White House does want to move on to the deal’s second phase, this requires more than talk, which is the challenge embedded in the agreement. Hamas needs to return the bodies of the deceased hostages.
In this aspect, there is some movement in the right direction. Reports say that Turkey has sent a delegation to Gaza to help with search and rescue, and this can ostensibly help find the deceased hostages. Additionally, Egypt is prepared to transfer equipment to begin clearing the rubble.
Some movement in the right direction
The question will be whether Hamas can already portray itself as the governing authority. If the terrorist organization continues to control most of Gaza, then it will be hard for the countries involved to believe that anything will change.
Turkey, Egypt, and some other states are likely to be basically fine with working with Hamas. In fact, Ankara may prefer it, which will make it even harder to dislodge the group or disarm it.
Additionally, as long as Israel insists that the deal be adhered to, it will be challenging to proceed to the subsequent stages. One incentive to move on to the next stages may be the desire by Hamas and others to see the IDF withdraw from Gaza even further. So far, the military controls what it calls the Yellow Line in the enclave. This is essentially half of Gaza.
Al Ain media in the UAE has said that “Hamas bullets control the truce.” This clearly indicates that the UAE also senses that unless Hamas is disarmed, it will continue its reign of terror against perceived dissidents.
The articles at Arab News, Al-Ain, and elsewhere all portray the same challenges in Gaza. This means that many countries are wary of the future and wonder if the deal agreed to in Egypt on October 8 can actually change the situation in Gaza.