An unknown individual within Israel's security system may be using insider information on an online gambling website, public broadcaster KAN News reported.
An anonymous user on Polymarket, a gambling site that allows users to gamble on future global events, accurately predicted four events surrounding Israeli military action during Operation Rising Lion in June 2025.
These events included Israel striking Iran before the end of June 2025, Israel announcing the end of the Iran operation before July, Israel attacking Iran before July, and Israel generally striking Iran on a Friday.
The gambler bet tens of thousands of dollars on the outcomes of these wagers, making over $100,000 in total profit.
Gambler makes more profit on Iran strike bets
Recently, after months of inactivity, the same user has made more bets on Israeli military action, spending a total of $8,198 on "Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026" and "Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026."
Because the Polymarket site treats predictions similarly to stocks, the prices of these predictions rose dramatically. The user then sold their shares in the predictions for a profit of over $3,000.
The IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) have spoken on the incident, but have not opened an investigation at this time.
In the US, similar concerns were recently raised after one individual wagered $32,500 on a series of bets related to US action in Venezuela. He bet that the US would de-seat former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro before the end of January, mere hours before the US military actions in Caracas, and gained a $436,000 profit.