Former Yesh Atid MK and Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) senior research fellow Ofer Shelah warned that Israel’s relationship with the United States has been deteriorating for “a very long time,” in a Monday interview.
Shelah analyzed the diplomatic track between Washington and Tehran, the political pressure facing US President Donald Trump, Israel’s military posture in Lebanon, and new INSS findings on Israeli public attitudes toward the war.
He warned that any agreement that does not include concrete and enforceable terms on Iran’s nuclear program would represent a failure for both Israel and the United States.
“There is no such thing as eliminating the Iranian nuclear project without an Iranian decision,” he said, adding that “time has worked, and continues to work, in Iran’s favor.”
He added that the emerging diplomatic picture around Iran remained unclear, but argued that the central issue was unchanged: Iran’s enriched uranium and nuclear program.
“Right now, it is clear that we are heading toward a very long ceasefire,” Shelah said. “I highly doubt anyone will break it, certainly not the Americans. In my view, everything revolves around the issue of enriched uranium and the Iranian nuclear project.”
US politics forced Trump’s hand, Shelah says
Shelah said domestic political pressure in the United States, including opposition within Trump’s Republican Party, helped push the president toward halting the fighting.
“Last week, a Democratic proposal was supposed to come before the House of Representatives requiring the president to get authorization from Congress in order to continue the war, because 60 days had passed,” Shelah said. “The Republicans did not allow it to come up because they knew they were going to lose.”
According to Shelah, members of Congress facing reelection were reluctant to support a war that few Americans understood or backed.
“No one understands this war, and very few support it, both in the United States and in the Republican Party,” he said. “So the political reality forced President Trump’s hand.”
Israel-US ties are losing bipartisan support
Shelah warned that the political fallout in the United States could damage Israel’s long-term strategic standing.
“Israel-US relations have been going to a bad place for a very long time,” he said. “We have stopped being an issue supported by both parties.”
He said Israel’s image in Washington was increasingly that of “the tail wagging the dog,” adding that American voters were focused on the war’s impact on fuel prices and living standards.
By 2028, Shelah predicted, Trump could become “toxic” to both political camps, making it essential for Israel to present itself as useful to American interests.
“Otherwise, the most problematic thing could happen, and the United States could return to the trend that characterized Obama and Trump’s first term, withdrawing from the Middle East,” he said.
‘A problematic form of fighting’ in Lebanon
Shelah also warned against Israel remaining in southern Lebanon without a clear endgame.
“We are there in a very problematic form of fighting,” he said. “The soldiers there are exposed to danger, and their activity there is not achieving any goal.”
He said the problem was not only American pressure, but what he described as a recurring Israeli tendency to continue military operations after they have exhausted their usefulness.
“The idea of a security zone in Lebanon is a recipe for disaster,” Shelah said. “We will achieve nothing there, we will lose soldiers, and in the end we will flee with our tail between our legs, exactly as we did in 2000.”
INSS poll points to public pessimism
Shelah concluded by citing a new INSS study that he said reflected a worrying trend in Israeli public opinion.
“The public appreciates the achievements of the war less and less,” he said. “It is pessimistic about the possibility of achieving more, but still supports continued fighting simply because it does not know how to do anything else.
“That is a very dangerous thing, and we need to wean ourselves off it,” he added. “We need leadership that will wean itself off it, and unfortunately, I do not really see that.”