Some 550,000 young Israelis are expected to be eligible to vote for the first time in the upcoming election, representing an estimated 10 to 12 Knesset seats, according to an N12 report published Wednesday.
Despite a strong ideological tilt toward the Right, support was divided among a wide range of parties rather than concentrated in a single political camp.
Seventy-four percent of respondents described their political views as right-wing or center-right, compared with 23% who identified with the Left or center-left. N12 said the corresponding figures among the wider adult population were 67% and 33%, respectively.
Asked which party they would support if elections were held now, 16% chose Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, while 14% selected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad received 10%, United Torah Judaism received 9%, and Yair Golan's Democrats received 7%.
The results broadly reflect a fragmented national race in which Yashar and Likud have remained among the largest parties in several recent surveys. A series of polls published last week showed Yashar ahead of Likud in most surveys, although the balance between the broader political blocs remained unsettled.
Religious Zionism and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu each received 6% among first-time voters in the N12 survey, followed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit at 5%.
The joint list headed by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha received 4%, while Shas, led by Arye Deri, and Ofer Winter's People of Israel each received 3%. Other parties received around 1% each, while 10% of respondents remained undecided.
Surveys including adults present different figures, highlighting demographic differences
The figures differ in some respects from polling of the wider electorate. In a September 16-17 national survey, for example, Otzma Yehudit received eight projected Knesset seats, and Shas received seven. That poll surveyed Israeli adults, including Jewish and Arab respondents, limiting direct comparisons with the N12 first-time voter sample.
Among respondents in the N12 poll who identified as haredi (ultra-Orthodox), United Torah Judaism received 45%, while Shas received 20% and Otzma Yehudit received 13%. N12 assessed that some young haredi voters who might otherwise support Shas were moving toward Ben-Gvir's party.
Family voting patterns also appeared to remain influential. Fifty-nine percent said they planned to vote for the same party or political bloc as their parents, while 21% said they expected to vote differently.
Among those who said they would break with their parents' voting preference, 14% said they would support coalition parties. By comparison, 23% said their parents supported the Netanyahu bloc but that they intended to vote for what N12 termed the "change bloc."
The poll also asked respondents to compare potential prime minister candidates. In a matchup between Netanyahu and Bennett, 46% selected Netanyahu and 34% selected Bennett. Another 15% chose neither, while 5% said they did not know.
Against Eisenkot, Netanyahu received 47%, compared with 37% for the Yashar leader. Ten percent chose neither, and 6% said they did not know. These results differ from some recent surveys of the broader electorate, including polls in which Eisenkot has led Netanyahu when respondents were asked who was better suited to serve as prime minister.
Recent national surveys have otherwise shown considerable movement among the main parties and smaller lists as the election approaches, with parties near the electoral threshold potentially affecting the overall bloc arithmetic. Recent polling has shown a fragmented race and little separation between the two main blocs.
The Midgam survey, led by pollster Mano Geva, was conducted online from September 15 to 22 among a representative sample of Jewish Israelis ages 18 to 22 who are eligible to vote for the first time. A total of 301 people responded out of 1,521 invited to participate. The poll had a maximum sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points and used stratified sampling followed by random sampling within the strata.