Following the revelation that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was responsible for at least two antisemitic arson attacks on Jewish sites in Australia, The Jerusalem Post spoke to two Israeli experts on the Islamic Republic to understand its reasoning for attacking Jewish Diaspora communities.
There seemed to be little strategic gain for Iran in orchestrating the attacks on Jewish citizens of countries beyond Israel, and when the experts were asked what master plan informed such attacks, they explained that incidents such as the December Melbourne Adass Israel Synagogue arson and the October Lewis’ Continental Kitchen arson were not part of wartime strategy but born of the Islamic regime’s fanatical ideological doctrine.
Reichman University Iranian politics expert Dr. Meir Javedanfar and an anonymous ex-official in the security apparatus and Israel Security and Defense Forum adviser explained that the IRGC sees the Jewish Diaspora as indistinguishable from Israel.
Javedanfar said that the regime’s hostility is not just against Israel but also against Jews. When Iranian officials deny the Holocaust, this is not rhetoric but part of a genuine animus against the Jewish people. According to the former official, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s followers are true believers in an ideology that sees world Jewry as an enemy of Islam, in part because of the Diaspora’s connection to Israel.
“The compass of their ideology is that there is no place for Zionism under the sun,” said the ex-official, and most Jewish people hold Zionist beliefs.
Javedanfar said that the Iranian force sees the effort to harm Diaspora Jews as a legitimate part of its war conduct. The IRGC’s perspective is that the Jewish Diaspora is a soft target that would hurt Israel because the Jewish state holds itself responsible for their security.
While it is difficult to strike Israel, the Jewish Diaspora is more vulnerable and could be targeted to settle scores and deter future attacks. The security official said that the regime still holds in reserve capabilities to trigger conventional or “mega terrorist attacks.”
Westerners often don’t understand the Islamic Republic’s motivations, according to the security official, because it requires understanding the Jihadist mentality in which hate and faith are the basis, rather than pragmatism or opportunism.
“People in the West think in a Western rational way and don’t understand the fanatical ideology behind it,” said the ex-official.
Iran's attacks on diaspora Jews not new
Both Iran experts noted that there was no wartime strategy in attacking Jews in Australia, as Iran had conducted multiple attacks against Diaspora Jews prior to the October 7 massacre. Both gave the example of the 1994 Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) Jewish Community Center bombing orchestrated by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Since then, there have been further incidents, and Israeli security services have stopped many Iranian attacks against Western targets, tourists, diplomats, and Jewish sites.
Often, as was the case in Australia, Iran recruits local actors, such as organized crime elements, to carry out the attacks. The former official said that these actors aren’t always of the highest quality and sometimes can’t act without the IRGC finger pulling the trigger. However, this still hasn’t reduced their motivation.
The ex-official said that Iran is pragmatic as far as it wants to survive, and it is willing to absorb costs such as Australia’s diplomatic punishments. Canberra lacks the will and capability to threaten Tehran militarily, and eventually, diplomatic channels will be fully restored.
This is similar to the mindset of deceased Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. When he attacked on October 7, he knew what the consequences would be and didn’t even wait for the approval or assurance that others would join him. The consequences were acceptable to him, and he judged Hamas to be able to survive and absorb the costs of a war with Israel.