Many commentators tend to downplay the successful Israeli–American campaign against Iran, which is currently at a critical turning point.
Although more could certainly have been achieved, and still can be, the campaign has eliminated significant parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile and UAV capabilities and production sites.
This is important to note in light of the New York Times' report, even if not fully accurate, that American intelligence estimates Iran has about 40% of the drones and about 60% of the launchers and missiles they had before the last round, after taking out some of them from the tunnels - taking advantage of the ceasefire and the weather.
Campaign could drive further radicalization
The last campaign may also initiate a process that could eventually lead to a regime change. But, at the same time, it could drive further radicalization. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which effectively controls Iran, understands that only acquiring nuclear weapons will provide it with an “insurance policy,” and it will do everything to achieve that goal.
As happened after Operation Rising Lion, Iran is already thinking about reconstruction, primarily its air defense and ballistic missile capabilities. This time, given the scale and severity of the damage inflicted, reconstruction will take much longer.
However, as long as the current regime remains in power, under any agreement, the existential threat to the State of Israel will not be removed, and the threat to the free world will persist. Therefore, it is crucial to steer the US-led negotiations in the right direction.
As I wrote before Operation Roaring Lion, and even more so now, there can be only one demand from US-Iran negotiations if the United States mistakenly decides to continue the current process it has entered into, despite the Iranian arrogance and disregard for US President Donald Trump.
What is needed instead is the complete dismantling of what remains of Iran’s capabilities - its nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and UAVs - alongside an end to its support for terrorism and domestic repression. This must also include the unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a demand Iran has recently and strategically inserted into negotiations as a new central bargaining chip.
Cannot settle for merely suspending enrichment
It is unacceptable to settle for merely suspending enrichment, even for decades, and removing the highly enriched Uranium from Iran - certainly not to Russia or Pakistan. Iran must not be allowed to do what it excels at: Diplomatic maneuvering and stalling, while projecting a false “sense of victory.”
This is not supported by facts on the ground, aside from boastful rhetoric from Iran echoed by some Israeli commentators and politicians and by opponents of Trump across the American political spectrum.
Iran’s top priority in negotiations is the removal of crippling sanctions and the injection of billions of dollars into its collapsing economy. Any such inflow, even only a few billion dollars, combined with continued oil trade with China and India, would enable the Revolutionary Guards to suppress domestic dissent that will inevitably arise once the Iranian public sees the destruction brought upon them by the regime.
At the same time, it would allow the regime time to rebuild and support terror networks and proxy forces, restore air defense capabilities, and renew the missile and drones programs - including missile ranges that could threaten the US - while continuing the preparations to break out toward nuclear weapons post-Trump.
Trump must avoid an agreement that only includes the removal of the highly-enriched uranium and the suspension of its enrichment, alongside a meaningless Iranian declaration that they are abandoning nuclear weapons, as demanded by Trump in his State of the Union address prior to the war.
Such an agreement would constitute a continued betrayal by the American president of the millions of Iranians who oppose the regime and took to the streets expecting the assistance that Trump promised them. The president must return to his ultimatum to the regime: “Accept the full terms of the United States, or face continued military action.”
Significance of the uranium stockpile
Given the intense debate on this issue, it is important to fully understand the significance of the uranium stockpile, but also to realize that it is not the whole picture.
“Experts” who do not truly understand the Iranian nuclear program continue to claim that Iran is only months away from a nuclear bomb, and they are misleading. There is a major difference between having enough fissile material sufficient for a bomb and a complete nuclear weapons system that can be mounted on a missile and delivered to a target.
The highly-enriched uranium is only one component, albeit a very important one, which Israel has prevented Iran from acquiring for decades and therefore must be removed.
However, targeting the Iranian leading nuclear scientists during the last two operations, combined with the widespread damage to research infrastructure, laboratories, and other critical components, has set Iran’s nuclear program back by years.
Those who find those facts inconvenient and not serving their agenda have now begun referring to a “nuclear device” instead, just to continue claiming that Iran is months away from a bomb.
At the same time, it is important to ensure that Iran does not run into an “immune zone” regarding fissile material by transferring it along with several hundred advanced centrifuges, which the previous nuclear agreement allowed it to develop.
However, this must not come at the cost of reaching a bad agreement that fails to address all issues.
The linkage between negotiations with Iran and those with Lebanon is concerning - not so much because of its substance - but in the apparent motivations behind Trump’s statements and his desire to “appease the Iranians” in order to keep them engaged in talks with his representatives. For now, it seems we can "mainly rely" on the Iranians misinterpreting his hesitation and hardening their positions, as seen in the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and IRGC statements.
Regarding Lebanon, it is essential at a minimum to ensure the ceasefire conditions that existed prior to the war, while reflecting Israel’s shift in its strategic security doctrine from “containment and defense” to “prevention and offense”, and preserving operational achievements and building a defensive framework for northern residents against anti-tank threats and infiltration.
The Iranian regime will continue to “play the dirty game” at which it excels. Only a clear understanding that the military option, once again emphasized by the president, is credible, and that the US is returning to comprehensive demands, may change its behavior.
One can also hope that the Iranian people, who will continue to suffer under a collapsing economy and the destruction that will become visible, will resume mass protests as they did in the months leading to Operation Roaring Lion.
Only the Iranian people can ultimately be responsible to bring a regime change in Iran.
BG. (res.) Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at Technion. He served as National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu and as the acting head of the National Security Council.