Israelis are right to recognize the historic nature of the military partnership between Israel and the United States that has emerged in the ongoing war against Iran. What we are witnessing is extraordinary: unprecedented joint operations and intelligence sharing. Few would have imagined this just a few years ago.
But here is where Israelis are making a fundamental mistake – many take this partnership for granted.
There is a tendency in Israel to assume that what the Trump administration has provided in this war – the willingness to launch a direct war against Iran, the unprecedented strategic coordination, and the broader support Israel has received over the last 15 months – is simply the new normal. That assumption is dangerously wrong.
The US-Israel relationship has never been static. It has always had high moments of cooperation alongside low moments of tension and disagreements.
Joe Biden, for example, made decisions that were deeply frustrating to Israel. His administration delayed the delivery of one-ton bombs and openly opposed Israel’s ground offensive in Rafah. Those decisions were widely criticized in Israel, and not without reason.
But this cannot be looked at without the broader context: In the immediate aftermath of October 7, Biden sent aircraft carrier strike groups to the region to deter Iran and Hezbollah. He delivered the now-famous “Don’t” speech, stood by Israel at the UN Security Council, and made the first wartime visit to Israel by a US president.
The hard truth that Israelis need to internalize is that it is unlikely that future American presidents will look anything like either Joe Biden or Donald Trump when it comes to Israel.
Shifting American support for Israel
And this should concern us. Because if we do not wake up to the changes taking place inside American politics and society, the fallout could eventually be more severe than we currently can imagine. This is not a question anymore as to whether the next president will provide Israel with annual military aid. It is questionable whether, in a future war, a different president will allow spare parts for combat aircraft to be sent to Israel.
Take a look at the recent Gallup poll released just two days before the war broke out. For the first time in more than two decades, Americans expressed greater sympathy for Palestinians than for Israelis. Forty-one percent of Americans said they sympathize more with Palestinians, compared with 36% who said they sympathize more with Israelis.
Just a year earlier, Israel held a 13-point advantage.
This is significant, since sympathy is another way of measuring solidarity. It reflects where the emotional center of American public opinion is moving.
We have to recognize the truth: Israel’s wars over the past two and a half years – wars that Israelis overwhelmingly view as necessary for national survival – are not being interpreted the same way in the United States.
And the political implications are already visible.
Take Chicago, for example. One of the largest Jewish communities in America – roughly 300,000 Jews in the broader metropolitan area – will soon see a major congressional race unfold following the retirement of veteran Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky. On March 17, the Ninth District, which has been represented by a Jewish member of Congress since 1965, will choose its Democratic candidate who will then almost automatically win the seat.
And while two of the leading candidates are Jewish, the competition is not about who is more pro-Israel but rather who shows that they are more critical.
One of the frontrunners, Laura Fine, has historically maintained a pro-Israel record, but even she has felt pressure to publicly distance herself from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and from the traditional pro-Israel political support networks in order to remain viable with Democratic voters.
Look at California Governor Gavin Newsom, widely viewed as a leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. Last week, he described Israel as an apartheid state and suggested the United States should reconsider military aid to Israel.
The erosion of support is not confined to the political Left. It is increasingly visible on the Right as well.
Influential voices in conservative media and politics are increasingly questioning the US-Israel relationship. Commentators such as Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and others have promoted narratives portraying Israel as a burden or liability for the United States rather than as a strategic ally. In a recent Pew survey, half of Republicans under 50 expressed an unfavorable view of Israel.
Add to this the gradual decline of automatic support among younger evangelical voters, and the trend becomes impossible to ignore – support for Israel is no longer simply a matter of which party controls the White House. The shift is happening across party lines.
And that is what makes this moment so dangerous. Imagine that in April and October of 2024, the United States had not deployed its defensive capabilities to help intercept Iranian missiles and drones fired at Israel. Imagine that CENTCOM had not coordinated defensive operations. Imagine that the United States had not accelerated the delivery of advanced weaponry, intelligence support, and logistical assistance.
Imagine that Israel would need to face Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other regional actors without that level of American backing.
Would the regional balance be shifting in Israel’s favor? Almost certainly not.
That is why we need to understand that Israel is playing with fire by allowing the country to become a partisan issue inside the United States.
And fixing that problem will require far more than better messaging. Treating this as a communications or hasbara (public diplomacy) problem is like putting a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound.
The problem is much deeper.
What is required is a serious reassessment of policy, tone, and strategic understanding. Israel must recognize that many of its policies and actions are increasingly viewed in the United States through a different lens than the one Israelis use to understand them.
If Israel wants to preserve the extraordinary partnership it currently enjoys with the United States, it cannot assume that the future will look like the present. Moments like the one we are living through are rare, and history shows that they do not last forever.
The writer is a co-founder of the MEAD policy forum, a senior fellow at JPPI, and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post. His newest book is While Israel Slept.