Israel’s decision to formally recognize Somaliland marks a quiet but consequential shift in the geopolitics of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. After more than three decades of de facto independence, relative stability, and democratic governance, Somaliland has secured recognition from a key Western-aligned power with direct security stakes in the region.
For Israel, the move reflects hard strategic logic. For the United States, it should serve as a prompt to reconsider long-standing assumptions that no longer reflect realities on the ground.
Somaliland occupies a uniquely strategic position at the entrance to the Gulf of Aden, directly opposite southern Yemen and within operational range of Houthi-controlled territory. This geography alone would merit attention. But geography combined with political reliability is what makes Somaliland exceptional.
Unlike much of the Horn of Africa, Somaliland has maintained internal stability, regular democratic elections, peaceful transfers of power, and a political culture that is broadly pro-Western and deeply suspicious of Islamist movements, as well as of Chinese and Russian influence.
For Israel, the relevance is immediate.
Over the past two years, the Houthis have emerged as a persistent and adaptive threat – one that neither Israel, the United States, nor their Gulf partners have been able to decisively neutralize. Somaliland lies roughly 300 to 500 kilometers from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, a distance that makes it a potentially transformative platform for intelligence collection, maritime security, UAV interception, and broader regional monitoring.
Just as Israel’s strategic partnership with Azerbaijan enhanced its ability to counter Iranian activity, Somaliland offers Israel proximity, access, and cooperation in a theater that has become central to its national security calculus.
Somaliland: Willing and well-positioned
Crucially, Somaliland is not merely well located – it is willing. Its leadership has actively sought security and economic cooperation with Western-aligned states such as the United States, United Arab Emirates, Taiwan, and now Israel. This distinguishes it from alternatives in the region.
Eritrea, on the other hand, though geographically closer to Yemen, is hostile to Western interests and maintains close ties with Iran. Djibouti prefers strict neutrality. Ethiopia lacks maritime access. Somaliland alone combines strategic location with political alignment and operational openness.
Israel’s recognition also underscores a broader point relevant to Washington. Somaliland already behaves like a responsible state. It controls its territory, secures its borders, manages its airspace, conducts elections, and maintains peaceful relations with its neighbors. Its bid for recognition is not a product of civil war or external coercion but the culmination of more than 30 years of self-governance following the collapse of the Somali state. Continued insistence on a rigid “One Somalia” framework ignores the reality that stability in Somaliland exists precisely because it separated itself from Mogadishu’s chronic dysfunction.
For the US, concerns about precedent and regional backlash are understandable – but increasingly outdated. The fear that recognizing Somaliland would destabilize Somalia assumes that Somalia is presently stable, or that Somaliland’s status is the main variable affecting that stability. Neither assumption holds.
Meanwhile, American officials have already acknowledged Somaliland’s strategic value through Pentagon visits and exploratory discussions about potential basing and security cooperation. Israel’s recognition now lowers the diplomatic cost of rethinking old policies and raises the strategic cost of continued hesitation.
There is also a larger geopolitical dimension. Somaliland has positioned itself as explicitly opposed to Chinese and Turkish subversion in the Horn of Africa and as open to deeper integration with Western security architectures, including the Abraham Accords.
In an era when great-power competition increasingly plays out along maritime chokepoints and fragile states, ignoring a stable, cooperative actor in such a critical location is not strategic caution – it is strategic neglect.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is therefore not an act of diplomatic symbolism but a calculated move grounded in security, geography, and political realism. It acknowledges facts on the ground that have existed for decades and aligns Israel with a partner whose interests increasingly converge with those of the US.
Washington needs to follow suit.
Somaliland has already demonstrated what the US claims to reward: stability, democratic governance, and willingness to advance shared strategic interests in one of the world’s most volatile regions. Israel’s decision has now made that case harder to ignore.
The writer is a senior research fellow at the Israel-Africa Relations Institute.