In the last two weeks of December, the relations between Israel and Germany got a serious upgrade. The Bundestag has approved an expansion of the Arrow 3 defense system contract with Israel, valued at approximately $3.1 billion.
That decision augmented the initial purchase agreement signed almost two years ago and valued at about $3.5 billion. Additionally, a high-level German business delegation arrived in Israel, headed by Tobias Meyer, chairman of the global shipping group DHL.
When a superpower takes a leave of absence, both militarily and politically, it is the diverse strengths of former allies that, combined, may bring the security and stability formerly guaranteed by the withdrawing superpower.
Russia’s war against Ukraine was a watershed moment for Europe. And even if the initial reaction to Russia’s aggression was lukewarm and hesitant, with some European countries resigned to the new European order pushed by Russia’s revanchism, most of the continent did not give up. Germany, along with some Eastern European and Scandinavian countries, has emerged as the bulwark of Europeans unwilling to give up. They are ready to stand up to Moscow’s designs.
Germany has the largest, and the strongest, economy in Europe. It is a founding member of the EU and the most active political force on the continent. It is, since the days of its unification, the strongest European country in every aspect. In that capacity, it is a very important, some may argue, indispensable ally of the Jewish state.
From guilt to strategic partnership
The relationship between Germany, first West Germany and then United Germany, has not been easy. The Holocaust served as the backdrop, overshadowing the relationship from the day in 1965 when diplomatic relationships were established between the Federal Republic and Israel. The decision itself spurred protests and political crises in Israel.
Over the decades that passed since, the guilt, the driving force behind Germany’s attitude toward Israel, was replaced by mutual interests and strategic partnership. This is exactly where both countries find themselves at this moment in history.
Germany needs to rebuild and revamp its aging and decaying peacetime infrastructure. Not least importantly, it needs to rebuild, almost from scratch, its army, which after the end of the Cold War has decayed from a formidable force into a laughing stock. To achieve those goals in the shortest possible time – and time is not on Germany’s side – Germany needs to dramatically increase its military production.
Many modern, sophisticated military systems take decades to develop, costing billions of dollars. The only alternative is to buy them from reliable partners. Previously, that one source would be the United States. Yet Germany is in this situation precisely because the former “protector” of Europe is abdicating its responsibilities. Germany must diversify. Enter Israel.
Israel produces multiple military platforms, such as the Arrow defense system, which Germany needs quickly and cannot rapidly produce on its own, and cannot buy almost anywhere else. Those platforms and systems have an advantage that no other Western military possesses: they are all battle-tested and have proven their capabilities and effectiveness during the last two years of the conflict with Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Israel possesses the technological know-how to adapt the technology to the rapidly changing battlefield of modern warfare. Israel’s geographical proximity to Europe is another advantage.
There is a lot of deep irony in Israel supplying weapons to Germany, but history does go in circles, so one inevitably finds oneself staring at the world upside down.
Israel needs Germany as a bridge to the continent. Europe is, and likely will continue to be, Israel’s largest export market. If the United States is Israel’s ally, making sure the Security Council does not go rogue against Israel, then Germany’s role is similar in the EU. It keeps the EU’s policies vis-à-vis Israel in check, lest France, especially under the leadership of President Emmanuel Macron, joins forces with Turkey in a united front against Israel.
Germany has been a good friend of Israel’s, but with Chancellor Friedrich Merz assuming power, the friendship is moving toward a strategic partnership. Yet the future of this strategic partnership completely depends on whether the newfound German resolve can sustain itself over time. Germany is known to reinvent itself. It has, on more than one occasion, risen from the ashes of history.
But this time there is a lot stacked against its rebirth. Economy, demographics, China’s rise, and a declining America all play negative roles in the ability of Germany to become the Germany the continent needs to replace the United States.
The days of political stability during the Angela Merkel era are gone. However, Germany may still surprise us and maintain its current steady, very German path of rejuvenation forward.
The West needs a strong, assertive Germany. Israel needs a friend on a continent that is in decline, and lost to dreams and misplaced expectations.
The writer lives and works in Silicon Valley, California. He is a founding member of San Francisco Voice for Israel.