The year 2026 may be the year in which it becomes clear whether Zionism can continue as a viable national project or slide into a very dark future. The coming election will decide whether Israel is capable of making deep, necessary repairs and whether it has leadership able to distinguish between long-term national interest and petty politics.
What follows a is set of minimum conditions for the survival of the country as a Jewish, democratic, and modern state with moral legitimacy.
Without a real inquiry, there is no renewal
Israel must establish a genuine state commission of inquiry into October 7, which is needed not just to assign responsibility but to understand how an entire system collapsed and prevent a recurrence. The refusal to abide by the 1968 law on independent commissions is a transparent effort to avoid the responsibility that the government very obviously bears, along with the military.
Replacing a state commission with a “government review” would lack public trust and moral authority. Efforts to spread the blame to the opposition and the court system are a disgraceful insult to the intelligence. And the fevered incitement against the judicial system deepens the damage. All of it must end.
Without a real draft Law, there is no equality
Israel must reset its relationship with the ultra-Orthodox community, beginning with an enforceable and equal draft law. It cannot be that an entire sector – growing at a pace that would make it a majority within decades – is exempt from the defense of a society that is imperiled.
A real draft law need not be blind to sensitivities, but it must be binding. Military service for those suited to it, meaningful civilian service for those who are not in healthcare, welfare, education, emergency response, and community support. Service is an entry point into civic belonging, skills, and shared responsibility.
Today’s incentive structure rewards non-work and non-education: state-funded schools without core curriculum requirements, welfare systems that subsidize poverty without integration, and stipends that lock adult men into permanent dependency.
It’s economically unsustainable and morally indefensible. Instead, Israel must condition funding on a core curriculum, redirect support toward vocational training and employment, and provide real protection for those who choose integration.
Without separation from the West Bank, there is no Jewish state
Israel must halt settlement expansion beyond the security barrier and commit to separation from most of the West Bank. Continued expansion beyond the barrier entrenches a reality in which Israel rules over millions of Palestinians without citizenship and propels Israel toward an unsolvable dilemma: Grant citizenship and lose its Jewish character, or deny rights and lose its democratic one.
Israel must therefore state clearly: No new settlements beyond the barrier, no further legitimization of illegal outposts, and a serious, measured policy of seeking separation while retaining security. This will require border changes and enforced demilitarization, but without those constraints, Israel can afford to accept a state of Palestine, ending its spat with most of the world on this issue.
Without integration of Arab citizens, there is no functioning society
Israel must finally treat its Arab citizens as full partners in society. While some reject the state’s legitimacy, most understand that Israel can actually be a source of stability, freedom, and opportunity and live as a loyal minority in a Jewish state. The state must make that status dignified and concrete. This begins with sustained investment in their infrastructure, education, housing, and employment on par with Jewish communities. The fight against rampant crime in Arab society must become a top priority, pursued with serious resources and genuine partnership with local leadership.
The sector’s schools need better funding. Hebrew fluency must be prioritized so that all Arab youth can integrate fully into higher education, public service, the workforce, and the IDF – for those who so desire.
Without the PA, there is no solution for Gaza
Israel must end its boycott of the Palestinian Authority regarding Gaza. It’s a prerequisite for replacing Hamas with Palestinian civilian governance and truly ending the war. The PA is flawed and unpopular but still the only Palestinian body with governing experience, security forces, working ties with Israel, and international legitimacy. Talk of local clans as an alternative is fantasy.
The claim that the PA is no different from Hamas is blatantly false. The PA coordinates security with Israel – often at high political cost – while Hamas is a jihadist organization committed to Israel’s destruction. The boycott of the PA serves only to preserve the illusion that no political decisions are required, and actually guarantees Hamas’s survival, leaving Gaza as a festering wound.
Without world Jewry, there is no Jewish legitimacy
Israel needs its bond with the Jewish people worldwide, and it is fraying. Most American Jews – the largest and most influential Jewish community – are not Orthodox but liberal and pluralistic. Israel’s systematic deference to Orthodox interests and contemptuous treatment of other streams tells most Jews that the state is not really theirs. This madness weakens Israel politically in the United States, undermines resilience against antisemitism, and leaves Israel more isolated.
Israel must re-embrace a Jewish liberal identity and recognize diverse Jewish streams as equal partners or risk losing its Jewish anchor and its raison d’etre.
None of this is possible under the current government, which has moved consistently in the opposite direction – blocking a state inquiry, coddling the ultra-Orthodox, marginalizing Arab citizens, sidelining the PA, and alienating world Jewry. These terrible policies are leading Israel toward a cliff. Therefore, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Right haredi (ultra-Orthodox) bloc must be decisively defeated in the coming election.
If this does not happen, I predict millions of the most productive citizens will leave over the next decade. A year of decision is coming. The question is not whether Israel will change, but whether that change will be a chosen course correction – or the beginning of a tragic collapse.
The writer is a former chief editor of the Associated Press in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East; ex-chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem; and author of two books about Israel. Follow his newsletter “Ask Questions Later” at danperry.substack.com.