President Donald Trump’s ambitious initiatives to stabilize and pacify the Middle East are at risk of unraveling, in no small part due to the policies of the US’s closest regional ally: Israel.
Much of the administration’s criticism directed at Israel’s current policy – prioritizing force over diplomacy – is justified. However, across multiple fronts – Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria – the situation is now too dire for mere expressions of disapproval. What is required is the presentation of clear choices to a reckless Israeli government.
The upcoming Trump-Netanyahu meeting, scheduled for December 29, can be a decisive moment, providing the president with the opportunity to insist on course corrections to advance his Middle East ambitions.
Netanyahu's political strategy
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing doctrine is simple and cynical: Keep all fronts burning. To the extent that the flames can be controlled, their intensity is calibrated not according to Israel’s strategic interests but according to his political survival needs.
Across all these fronts, his policy amounts to what might be called creeping escalation. Like its West Bank predecessor – creeping annexation – it is incremental, accentuating territorial control and the use of force, while treating diplomacy as a nuisance to be avoided.
It sustains conflict while avoiding full-scale war, because unresolved conflict is what keeps him in power, whereas major conflagration invites outside intervention. Netanyahu thrives on perpetual crisis.
In Gaza, at this very moment, Netanyahu is effectively enabling the rebuilding of Hamas. Every day that passes without the emergence of a viable alternative to the terror organization pushes Israel, the region, and the international community further away from the vision articulated by Trump in his 20-point plan.
Ignoring facts on the ground does not make them disappear. The number of armed Hamas operatives in Gaza has not declined. Hamas’s recruitment mechanisms are overwhelmed by demand. While new recruits may be less well trained than those eliminated, they serve the same violent cause.
The claim that the targeted killing of one commander or another – justified as it is – meaningfully degrades Hamas’s capabilities is a dangerous illusion. Moreover, it perpetuates the conflict, undermines the ceasefire, and hardens conditions for transition to the second phase of the Trump plan.
From the outset, talk of “eliminating Hamas” has been a hollow slogan tailored to domestic political needs. The irony is that Netanyahu knows this. After all, throughout his tenure, he has presided over a clear precedent: the West Bank. Despite Israel’s near-total control there, consistently undermining the Palestinian Authority, which coordinates closely with Israel’s security agencies, has provided Hamas with the space to remain the primary force tying down dozens of IDF battalions on a permanent basis.
The lesson for Gaza is clear: Absent diplomacy – and absent a political alternative to Hamas – there is no decisive victory. There is only endless war.
Lacking a coherent strategy on any front, Netanyahu has perfected a perverse art: marketing perpetual conflict as inevitable, while trumpeting tactical battlefield gains as strategic achievements.
Undermining Trump's plan for Gaza
Across all fronts, this approach actively undermines the efforts of the Trump administration and regional coalitions of like-minded partners to stabilize Lebanon, to steer Syria toward domestic inclusiveness and regional restraint, and to offer Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza a different future.
None of these objectives is guaranteed. On every front, Israel faces legitimate and serious security challenges. Yet even while remaining vigilant and refusing to compromise on security requirements, this government must confront a fundamental truth: Military power alone does not deliver lasting outcomes. In the absence of a political strategy, military successes become strategic failures.
To prevent the collapse of his 20-point plan and advance its ambitious second phase, Trump must refuse to be played. On December 29, he should speak plainly to Netanyahu: You have had two years to decisively defeat Hamas. Your forces have done all that military power can achieve. Now you must commit – to me and publicly – to the full and genuine implementation of phase two of my plan.
This means flooding Gaza with humanitarian assistance; ending pressure on the Palestinian Authority and enabling it to provide political cover for Arab and Muslim states deploying forces to Gaza; cooperating fully with the International Stabilization Force and the Gaza civil governance mechanism; and declaring unequivocally that Israel has no intention of retaining territory in Gaza once the Strip is demilitarized.
The bottom line is simple. Trump faces a choice: firm, no-nonsense diplomacy now or acquiescence to the collapse of his plan and more war later.
Tamir Pardo is a former head of Mossad. He is a member of Commanders for Israel’s Security.
Nimrod Novik is a former senior adviser and special envoy to Shimon Peres. He is a fellow with the Israel Policy Forum and the Economic Cooperation Foundation, and a member of Commanders for Israel’s Security.