Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet President Donald Trump later this month at the Winter White House in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. At the top of the agenda will be Iran’s rapid expansion of its ballistic missile production and rebuilding of its air defenses, and whether Phase Two of the Gaza plan can proceed before Hamas is disarmed.
Phase Two of President Trump’s 20-Point Plan, together with UN Security Council Resolution 2803, calls for the demilitarization and disarmament of Hamas.
Hamas has unequivocally refused, rejecting disarmament and the dismantling of its tunnel network while asserting what it calls a “Palestinian right” to resist Israel.
Iran remains Israel’s most formidable adversary despite Israel’s tactical victory in the 12-day war in June. As IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir stated, “At the center of the longest and most complex war in Israel’s history stands the campaign against Iran.”
Netanyahu is reportedly preparing to brief President Trump on possible preemptive options, reflecting Israel’s post–October 7 shift toward a preventive military doctrine.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group reports that Iranian missile factories are operating “around the clock.” Iran hopes to launch as many as 2,000 missiles simultaneously in a future conflict, up from roughly 500 fired over 12 days, with the explicit aim of overwhelming Israel’s missile defenses.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Iran is prioritizing ballistic missile production over rebuilding its nuclear program, and senior Israeli officials confirm large-scale manufacturing has resumed. This threat is imminent.
President Trump has said he has “brought peace to the Middle East,” citing a ceasefire, the return of hostages, and Israel’s ability to maintain a security presence in over half of Gaza. His envoys are promoting “Project Sunrise,” a $112 billion Gaza reconstruction plan, underscoring the administration’s desire to declare success.
The hardest challenge remains establishing an International Stabilization Force (ISF) capable of disarming Hamas. Turkey and Qatar instead advocate rapid reconstruction while Hamas remains armed and dominant. President Erdogan and Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani are reportedly pressing Trump to pressure Israel to proceed.
What, then, could Trump offer Netanyahu in exchange for moving forward without immediate Hamas disarmament? One possibility is enhanced US support for a strike on Iran’s expanding missile program. But such support may come at the price of Israeli concessions in Gaza.
Disarming Hamas could take years
Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio has suggested Hamas might retain “light weapons,” implying a continued Hamas presence. He has also acknowledged that disarming Hamas could take years and that few countries are willing to join an ISF without clarity of mission.
No nation wants the job of disarming Hamas. Turkish or Qatari forces would likely be complicit, while others risk becoming human shields. Most would only deploy in Israeli-controlled areas, creating a dangerous scenario in which Hamas remains entrenched, Israel withdraws under pressure, and chaos follows.
Meanwhile, Turkey and Qatar appear to enjoy growing favor with the administration, amid reports that Trump is considering providing both with F-35s, posing a serious threat to Israel’s qualitative military edge. The administration’s belief that transactional deals can replace firm security guarantees is a critical vulnerability.
Netanyahu’s visit may bring both gifts and grim news, including pressure to halt operations in Syria and to advance Phase Two without Hamas’s disarmament. Israel may also be urged to accept Turkey and Qatar as part of a presidential “Board of Peace,” effectively shielding Hamas.
If intelligence assessments are correct, Iran’s missile buildup must rise to the top of Israel’s existential priorities. Netanyahu’s legacy has long been defined by Iran, and stopping this expansion may be his most urgent responsibility.
The Trump–Netanyahu summit marks the end of the beginning of Phase One of Israel’s seven-front war and will shape decisions in 2026 that directly affect both Israeli and American national security.
The writer is the director of the Middle East Political Information Network and the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report. He regularly briefs members of Congress, their foreign policy advisors, and the State Department.