Washington’s Syrian mistake: Empowering HTS, endangering Kurds - opinion

However, this change did not bring the democracy and freedom many had hoped for. Rather, it signified the victory of the Turkey-Qatar axis’s Sunni-Islamist project. While Iran’s influence in Syria was shattered, the democratic-pluralist axis led by Israel and the Kurds now faces an even greater threat.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime meant the breaking of the most critical link in Iran’s decades-long construction of the “Axis of Resistance.” The strategic corridor extending from Tehran to Baghdad, then to Damascus and the Mediterranean, saw its center destroyed. Hezbollah’s logistical lifeline was severed. Iran’s strategy of using Syrian territory as a forward base against Israel came to an end.

However, Iran’s dramatic loss did not create a more balanced or democratic order in the region. On the contrary, one radical Islamist force simply replaced another. The Shi’ite-theocratic authoritarian model gave way to a Sunni-Islamist authoritarian model.

HTS’s seizure of Damascus represents the greatest geopolitical victory of Turkey’s neo-Ottomanist foreign policy. The new administration led by Ahmed al-Sharaa is ideologically aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood and strategically linked to the Turkey-Qatar axis.

This victory was no accident. Years of Turkish military, intelligence, and logistical support, combined with Qatar’s financial power and the petrodollars of Gulf monarchies, prepared this outcome. Syria has now become part of Turkey’s strategic depth in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Perhaps the most critical development is the support the US has given to this new Syrian administration. This support demonstrates how easily decision-making mechanisms in the Trump administration can be manipulated. The immense financial and lobbying power of Gulf countries – particularly Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – has been decisive in shaping US policy.

Billions of dollars in defense industry contracts, energy cooperation agreements, think-tank donations, and media investments have convinced Washington to overlook HTS’s past. An organization once defined as al-Qaeda-affiliated is now being marketed as “moderate opposition.” Behind this marketing operation lies a massive lobbying machine financed by Gulf petrodollars.

This US posture can be explained by short-term energy security and a strategy to contain Iran. However, the long-term threats that a radical Sunni-Islamist Syria will create are being ignored. The Taliban experience in Afghanistan appears to have been forgotten.

The collapse of the Assad regime could theoretically have created new opportunities for Rojava, the Kurdish region of Syria. In reality, the opposite occurred. The new Syrian administration under HTS control provides ideal ground for implementing Turkey’s long-planned strategy to liquidate Rojava.

This would be a historic betrayal. Rojava, which fought against Islamic State in 2014, lost tens of thousands of its people, and has been the West’s most reliable ally in the Middle East, is now being isolated. If these policies and approaches continue, it would constitute a crime not only against the Kurds but against all democratic forces, minorities, and secular structures in the region.

The democratic autonomy model that Rojava built – women’s liberation, ethnic pluralism, local democracy, and secular governance – was a beacon of hope for the Middle East. This model offers a third way against both Shi’ite theocratic and Sunni-Islamist authoritarian systems and represents an existential strategic natural ally for Israel’s security.

However, this model now faces a greater existential threat than ever before. HTS’s power in Damascus gives Turkey a historic opportunity to eliminate Rojava. If Rojava falls, the last bastion of democratic alternatives in the Middle East will have been destroyed.

This would be not just the Kurds’ loss, but the entire region’s loss. For Yazidis, Assyrians, Syriacs, Armenians, and Alevis – all minorities – Rojava was a security guarantor. Rojava’s collapse would mean these communities becoming completely defenseless.

Although HTS is claimed to have “moderated” rhetorically, this organization’s ideological origins and connections pose a long-term threat to Israel. More importantly, the Kurds – Israel’s most reliable strategic partner in the Middle East – now face the threat of liquidation.

Israel is attempting to maintain its indirect cooperation with Rojava. However, the US’s preference for the Turkey-Qatar axis limits Israel’s capacity to support Rojava as well. This situation means isolating the two strongest actors of the democratic-pluralist axis from each other.

With Assad’s fall, the three-axis balance in the Middle East has shifted as follows:

1. Sunni-Islamist Axis (Turkey-Qatar-HTS): Currently in the strongest position. Controls Syria, has support from the US and Gulf countries, and is waiting for an opportunity to liquidate Rojava.

3. Democratic-Pluralist Axis (Israel-Kurds-Minorities): In the most fragile state. Rojava faces existential threat, Israel is losing strategic allies, and minorities are becoming defenseless.

In this new balance, if the international community does not intervene, we may witness Sunni-Islamist regional hegemony. This would mean a dark future for democracy, pluralism, women’s rights, and minority security.

The support given by the US and Europe to the HTS administration will be recorded as a historic mistake. This mistake carries the same logic as the support given to the mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s: the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Supporting radical Sunni-Islamist forces to weaken Iran will create a new ISIS, a new al-Qaeda, or a new Taliban in 20-30 years. Gulf countries’ money and lobbying can purchase US policy today, but the terrorist organizations that emerge tomorrow will make the entire world pay the price for this decision.

Even worse is the sacrifice of Rojava, the West’s most reliable ally, in this process. The Kurds, who fought against ISIS, gave 11,000 martyrs, and kept democratic values alive in the Middle East, are now being sacrificed to Turkey’s geopolitical ambitions.

Protecting Rojava is critical not only for the Kurds but for the entire democratic future of the Middle East. If Rojava falls:

- The last democratic experiment based on women’s liberation will be destroyed.

- Yazidis, Assyrians, and Syriacs will become completely defenseless.

- The secular and pluralist social model will disappear.

- No alternative to radical Islamist forces will remain.

What the US and Europe must do is guarantee Rojava’s autonomy and security rather than blindly supporting HTS. They must look after their long-term strategic interests rather than surrendering to Gulf countries’ lobbying.

The Middle East is now at a critical crossroads. The weakening of the Iranian axis did not automatically create a better order. On the contrary, one radical Islamist force replaced another. And in this process, Rojava – the region’s only democratic alternative – faced an existential threat.

If the international community does not act now, the Middle East’s future will be divided among sectarian authoritarian regimes. There will be no room left for democracy, pluralism, women’s rights, and minority security.