Artificial intelligence is reshaping the rules of the shopping season, and digital risks are becoming more complex than ever. E-commerce enters this year’s shopping season with both high expectations and unprecedented challenges.
The start of November marks the kickoff of a global shopping wave, with billions of consumers placing online orders. According to Statista, in 2025, approximately 2.8 billion people are shopping online, a number that continues to grow. Yet, behind the scenes, risk management and customer experience teams are bracing for a surge in claims, returns, and fraud attempts.
The year 2025 marks a turning point, the moment when AI became a central player in the shopping journey. A global survey by Riskified found that 73% of shoppers already use agentic AI to generate product ideas, compare prices, or summarize reviews. Trust in this technology is now almost on par with trust in human sales associates, 36% versus 38%, respectively.
While the convenience for consumers is clear, this is unknown territory for merchants. Errors, fraud, or AI-mediated transactions can all cause financial losses, and liability often falls on the merchant.
While the future of agent-based purchases is unfolding before our eyes, two types of purchases may occur: those in which the human buyer is involved and approves the transaction, and those that are carried out entirely by the agent, where the human buyer only defines their intent. In both cases, the transactions represent a significant change in how fraud teams need to analyze risk, which increases the complexity of the work and raises the level of risk.
Shopping season an opportunity for cybercrime
While consumers are enthusiastically adopting innovation, cybercriminals see the shopping season as an opportunity. Riskified’s analysis shows a sharp rise in activity on dark web forums ahead of BFCM (Black Friday and Cyber Monday), including guides for fraud schemes, fake refund services, and “discounts” on stolen cards. Alongside organized cyber rings, amateur fraudsters are expected to join the fraud frenzy, enabled by easy-to-use, “DIY” fraud-as-a-service tools.
According to the FBI’s 2025 Internet Crime Report, the top three cybercrimes by number of complaints in 2024 were phishing/spoofing, extortion, and data breaches. Cryptocurrency investment scams alone accounted for over $6.5 billion in reported losses.
The 2024 holiday season saw an exceptional rise in online fraud volume. While activity peaked during BFCM, an unexpected spike occurred between Christmas and New Year’s, when daily fraud rates were more than double the seasonal average. This surge is attributed to criminals exploiting the holiday lull, when security teams operate with reduced staff and oversight is limited.
To navigate the era of AI-driven shopping while maintaining both security and profitability, merchants should focus on three key strategic priorities: raising awareness among senior leadership about the evolving risk landscape of agentic commerce, promoting data transparency between AI platforms and merchants to ensure fair and informed risk assessment, and fostering shared intelligence between merchants and fraud-prevention platforms to strengthen defenses and mitigate liability in cases of disputes.
In a season where every click can become a transaction and every agentic AI assistant is a co-pilot in the customer journey, the line between convenience and risk has never been thinner. Just as delivery apps turned physical shopping into a tap on a phone while introducing new security challenges, agentic AI is once again changing the game. It can accelerate purchases, streamline decisions, and enhance customer experience, but it can also open new doors for sophisticated fraud.
The same technology that empowers consumers can also protect merchants if used wisely. With the right investment in intelligent solutions, data-driven infrastructure, and real-time behavioral analysis, the shopping month can transform from a high-risk race into a season defined by digital trust.
This is the time when merchants aim to boost sales, attract new customers, and retain loyal ones. But in an era where every agentic AI assistant is also a potential gateway for cybercrime, choosing the right technology is not just a competitive advantage; it is a requirement for survival.
The writer is senior vice president of product at Riskified.