Hamas is now facing the most dangerous period in its history. The terror group is losing many of its leaders and fighters, who are its most valuable assets. To Hamas, the survival of the organization means more than the survival of Gaza or its people.
As pressure mounts, Hamas sacrifices innocent civilians, treating them as replaceable through natural population growth. At the same time, its leaders are seen as rare and irreplaceable and are honored as martyrs, while the many victims are reduced to mere statistics.
This mindset reveals the heart of the crisis: a project that protects only the top leadership and esteems the faction over the population.
A powerful video recently emerged from Gaza, showing Hussam al-Astal, a local commander who has risen to oppose Hamas.
In the video, he placed a financial bounty on the heads of Hamas members, beginning at $50 and then lowering it to $25. This was more than a simple announcement. It symbolized the breaking of Hamas’s grip and the birth of a local resistance rising from within Gaza itself.
Hussam al-Asta's message
Astal’s message is the result of many failures during the Hamas rule since 2007. Instead of building a government focused on development and protecting its people, the terror organization left Gaza fragile.
Generous aid from Gulf countries has been required to rebuild hospitals, homes, and schools. Meanwhile, the terror movement focused on digging tunnels, stockpiling weapons, and targeting Palestinians who opposed it, turning its terrorist project into a heavy burden on the people.
The October 7 massacre worsened an already bad situation, with Hamas launching a bloody attack, murdering some 1,200 Israelis and kidnapping 251, including older people, children, and women. This sparked an unrelenting international and security response.
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader, had warned in advance that the “coming fight” could “destroy everything in its path.” This shows a mindset that accepts destruction, even of children and women, as a way of proving its existence. Such rhetoric puts Hamas in a difficult moral and political position.
New local forces
From this grim situation, new local Palestinian forces have appeared, especially the group led by Astal. Alongside it are groups such as the Popular Forces Abu Al-Shabab, which aim not for empty slogans but to restore public rights and rebuild lives. These factions gain legitimacy due to the daily suffering of the people, not from exiles or outside interests.
It appears that Gaza is heading toward a fierce internal conflict between Hamas, which has lost legitimacy in the eyes of many Palestinians, and groups that want to remove it and create a local alternative. This clash is expected to be violent.
The memory of Hamas’s brutal acts, including throwing civilians and officials from rooftops, has left deep anger and a demand for justice. Any future revenge will be targeted and long-lasting, driven by a sense of betrayal that will not be easily forgiven.
Still, random and unorganized revenge will only worsen the disaster and fail to heal past wounds. The only way to lasting security is fair, transparent legal accountability for Hamas’s leaders and members, along with transitional justice that rebuilds trust and avoids repeating violence. That is a serious challenge for everyone.
At the same time, Israel is using all its military and intelligence resources to hunt down those behind October 7, both inside Gaza and in regional capitals where they hide in luxury. The sword of retaliation pursues them and their followers.
Reconstruction plans
International reports also speak of reconstruction plans that could cost up to $53 billion over five years. Such a scale is beyond what local groups can manage.
All in all, external pressures and internal anger are squeezing Hamas from all sides. From this perspective, the terror group’s end will not be quick or merciful. Instead, it will be a slow, painful process affecting fighters, supporters, and sympathizers alike – as well as the silent.
The people have decided to erase every trace of this group from their memory, yet the real challenge is to direct this popular will into an organized legal process that avoids chaos and brings genuine justice – leading to reform and rebuilding without repeating cycles of violence.
Hussam al-Astal’s rise is no coincidence. It signals the birth of new local forces that declare the end of Hamas’s grip. If nations are judged by their ability to protect their citizens, Gaza now stands at a crossroads, facing accountability that restores rights or chaos that compounds destruction.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.