On August 27, US President Donald Trump summoned a tight-knit group of advisers to the White House to discuss a comprehensive post-war strategy for Gaza. Under consideration was humanitarian aid, governance alternatives to Hamas, and how to facilitate Gaza’s reconstruction.
Among those invited were Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Eyebrows were raised in political circles across the world when it was revealed that among those present was Britain’s former prime minister, Sir Tony Blair.
His presence should not have come as such a surprise. Blair has been closely involved with the Israel-Palestinian issue for a quarter of a century. Following an overwhelming electoral victory in 1997, he became Britain’s prime minister. In 2000, he offered the UK’s unequivocal support to then-US president Bill Clinton in his efforts to achieve an Israel-Palestinian peace deal at the Camp David Summit.
In 2002, he supported the Roadmap for Peace produced by the Middle East Quartet. The Quartet – comprising the UN, US, EU, and Russia – was set up to coordinate international efforts to achieve Israel–Palestinian peace.
The roadmap it promoted, which proposed a three-phased transition to normalization between Israel and the Arab world, incorporated the establishment of a sovereign, viable, and contiguous Palestinian state alongside Israel.
On the very day that Blair resigned the UK premiership – June 27, 2007 – he was appointed Quartet representative for the Middle East peace process. The White House announced that both Israel and the Palestinians had signed up to his appointment.
His mandate was to help the Palestinian Authority (PA) prepare for eventual statehood by establishing the means to run an administration, strengthen the Palestinian economy, and foster a climate of law and order.
He held that position for the next eight years, and it is generally considered that he did his best. He supported the “state-building plan” of the then-Palestinian prime minister, Salam Fayyad, and helped secure donor funding and foreign investment in the West Bank, leading to periods of up to 9% economic growth from 2008–2011.
He backed infrastructure projects (roads, electricity, water, industrial parks) and supported reforms of Palestinian security forces. Even so, there is no denying that overall, his achievements were underwhelming. Events were not on his side.
Blair supports two-state solution
When he took on the post, it was only 12 days since Hamas had seized control of the Gaza Strip, following a brief but violent conflict with Fatah forces. The immediate result was to split the Palestinian people into two, with two million living in Gaza and 3.5 million or more in the West Bank.
It also created a political divide between the Gaza Strip, controlled by Hamas, and the West Bank, controlled by the Palestinian Authority under Fatah.
It was a long time before Blair was able to make meaningful contact with Hamas, but he did play a behind-the-scenes role during the Gaza conflicts of 2012 and 2014, contributing to ceasefire arrangements, with Egyptian support, between Israel and Hamas.
Despite his best efforts, Blair was, of course, unable to effect any sort of reconciliation between the unyielding rejectionism of Hamas and the opportunist approach of Fatah. PA president Mahmoud Abbas, following the strategy initiated by his predecessor Yasser Arafat, continued promoting the idea of a two-state solution to world opinion, while covertly intending to use it as a first step toward overthrowing Israel and eventually taking over the whole of Mandate Palestine.
The Fatah constitution states as much, although it is rarely, if ever, referred to by Abbas or other Palestinian leaders in speeches in English: “Palestine is an Arab land, the land of the Palestinian Arab people… Palestine, with its boundaries that existed at the time of the British Mandate, is an indivisible territorial unit…The Palestinian Arab people have a legitimate right to their homeland and have the right to determine their destiny after the liberation of their homeland.”
These founding principles of the Fatah organization leave no room for a two-state solution.
Blair, of course, is himself utterly sincere in his belief that a resolution of the interminable dispute is entirely dependent on achieving a sovereign state of Palestine alongside Israel. But he slowly became aware of what the so-called “Palestinian cause” truly was, and now his eyes are fully open.
In an interview with StandTallWithIsrael.com on August 20, Blair said:
“Acceptance both culturally, and not just formally, of the State of Israel means that the two peoples can live side by side with some sense of equity… True peace can never be achieved through formal agreements alone – it requires a cultural shift, a mutual acceptance of Israel’s right to exist, and a transformation within Palestinian leadership and society.”
Tony Blair founds institute for global change
In December 2016, Blair founded the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI). Globalization is an inevitable process brought about by technological advances, economic interdependence, and the increasing movement of people and information across borders. TBI’s purpose is to help “countries, their people, and their governments to address some of the most difficult challenges in today’s world.”
Starting with seed funding of $9 million and a staff of 221, TBI has developed into the “McKinsey consulting firm for world leaders,” advising numerous governments on policy, governance, climate, extremism, and technology. Today, with a staff of about 1,000 and revenues of around $150 million, it operates in some 45 countries.
A poll commissioned by TBI in the summer of 2024 found that only about 7% of Palestinians in Gaza said they wanted Hamas to govern the Gaza Strip immediately after the war. Most overwhelmingly preferred a new governance structure.
In a conference in London in October 2024, Blair quoted the results of the poll as he emphasized the urgency of ending the conflict to pave the way for a future that offers security for Israel and self-governance for the population of Gaza.
What is needed, he said, are “intensive diplomatic efforts to create the conditions that will bring the war to an end in a way that provides Israel with the security it needs, and Palestinians in Gaza with a different and better future.”
Tony Blair is a fresh and positive presence on the scene. His experience of the Middle East as a whole, and the Israel-Palestinian issue in particular, is unrivaled. He is convinced that mutual recognition and cultural change are prerequisites for true peace and stability in the region, with change in Gaza being pivotal for progress on all fronts.
His will be a voice of moderation and reason in future Trump-led deliberations.
The writer, a former senior civil servant for 20 years, is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at: www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com.