Since the end of the recent conflict with Iran, Israelis have been focused on rebuilding and restoring life to what it was before. Understandably, this is the natural aspiration of any people emerging from a painful war.
But in Iran, citizens have found themselves facing a different kind of battlefield – a daily struggle against a regime that has failed them for decades. Years of corrupt and negligent governance have led to a situation where even basic services like electricity, water, and gas are rationed, and once again, it is the people who bear the heavy cost.
Over the past week, Iranian social media has been flooded with images and videos of desperate farmers and business owners across the country, crying out over the loss of their livelihoods. A record-breaking heatwave has only deepened the crisis. Tons of food have rotted and been discarded, livestock raised for food have perished in the extreme heat, and vital services have ground to a halt.
Without electricity and water, the economy is simply shutting down. In some areas, water is now sold in plastic bags and containers. The depth of the suffering is magnified as inflation continues to skyrocket and the Iranian toman plunges in value.
But basic services aren’t the only aspect of life deteriorating in Iran. In Tehran, for example, air pollution has been classified as toxic for various age groups for years. During the recent war with Israel, citizens shared a startling observation: for the first time in a long while, the air felt clean – the result of mass evacuations from the capital.
So, can all of this bring about regime change?
Iranians are asking increasingly difficult questions:
Why is the regime spending billions on foreign proxies when there is no bread in the shops and no water in the villages?
Why are our sons sent to die for an ideology that grows ever more distant from the people?
Why is the regime so quick to execute and imprison, often in inhumane detention centers?
Alongside these questions, anonymous footage of uniformed officers expressing frustration with the regime’s conduct has recently surfaced online. The younger generation – including the children of senior regime officials – is also speaking out openly against the government on social media. The erosion of public trust has reached across all sectors of society. Even moderate conservatives and religious leaders acknowledge that while the ship may not be sinking, it is already taking on water.
Regime change in sight?
Is this the moment?
It’s still too early to say. As of now, there is no organized political force capable of leading a full-scale revolution. The regime maintains firm control over its mechanisms of suppression. The “big brother” state watches from above with cameras, surveillance, arrests, and executions. But even the strongest regimes are not immune to internal collapse.
All it takes is a chain of events – economic freefall, high-profile defections, or paralyzing international sanctions – to accelerate processes of change already underway.
The future of Iran will be shaped by those who dare, even after 46 years, to dream of another life. A regime that sells water in plastic bags to its own citizens knows deep down that its time is running out.
The writer is an Israeli woman of Iranian descent, an independent researcher, and a lecturer specializing in life in Iran since the Islamic Revolution.