‘Coordinated attacks don’t announce themselves – but their rhythm gives them away. When multiple voices echo the same message within days, it’s rarely organic. It’s an op.” That principle, familiar to anyone in intelligence or politics, applies directly to the sudden media campaign against Reza Pahlavi.
In the span of days, a couple of articles appeared from people affiliated with US think tanks – each from politically connected voices, each targeting the same figure, and each drawing the same conclusion: that Pahlavi is ineffective and must step aside. These critics had nothing of value to say for years.
Now, as the regime falters and Pahlavi introduces a transition roadmap, they’ve found their voice. That is not a coincidence. It’s a coordinated political operation.
One bizarrely suggested Pahlavi move to Najaf – or Dubai, as another implied – as if following the path of a theocrat like Khomeini somehow grants legitimacy to a secular democrat. Another claimed his movement is disorganized, offering no credible alternative in its place. A third questioned his relevance while acknowledging his unmatched popularity. And one seems just annoyed that Pahlavi’s office didn’t respond to a proposed meeting. These are not serious arguments – they are attempts to shape perception by repetition.
Their omission of facts is deliberate. None address polling that places Pahlavi ahead of all other opposition figures. None mention the fact that Iranians chant his name in cities under regime surveillance. None engage with the five-pillar transition plan he has released. Instead of disputing it, they pretend it doesn’t exist.
Western analysts misread change in Iran
WESTERN ANALYSTS often misread the tempo of Iranian change. They expect textbook opposition models: formal parties, press-ready coalitions, and DC-approved language. When they don’t see that, they assume failure. But Iran doesn’t operate by their formula – and their inability to think outside that box reveals the real problem.
For years, these voices have sat in Washington offices, writing memos and appearing on panels, convinced that proximity to power equals understanding of Iran. However, proximity to Washington power doesn’t equal that. They don’t speak the language, they don’t feel the pulse, and they don’t grasp how legitimacy is built inside a country where dissent can mean death.
What they ignore – or resent – is that legitimacy in Iran is earned. Pahlavi didn’t buy it: He held it through silence, exile, and principle. That is precisely why he remains the only serious vehicle for transition. And why so many who once claimed expertise now scramble to dismiss him.
The pattern is familiar. Three factions benefit from weakening Pahlavi: regime-linked reformists who want a controlled transition, MEK-aligned actors who rely on chaos, and Western circles that confuse Beltway access with Iranian legitimacy. These groups agree on little – but on this, they align: Pahlavi must be neutralized before Iranians consolidate around him.
This campaign is not about improving the opposition: It’s about eliminating the only figure with public traction and a defined plan. That kind of sabotage creates a vacuum. Vacuums don’t lead to democracy – they lead to instability, power struggles, and extended rule by the current regime.
If Pahlavi was irrelevant, no one would spend this much time and capital trying to discredit him. He is targeted precisely because he remains the only opposition figure with both domestic support and a real transition framework.
This isn’t about monarchy or republic. It’s about coordination versus collapse. Undermining the only viable path forward delays the end of the Islamic Republic – and with it, the return of peace, order, and self-determination for Iran. Perhaps some of the think tank budgets would also disappear the day the regime does.
Ignore the noise; look at the structure. No other figure brings national legitimacy, diaspora alignment, and a plan to stabilize the country. That is why the regime fears him. That is why the attacks are escalating. And that is why policymakers must recognize what’s at stake.
The effort to erase him is growing. It won’t work. Reza Pahlavi is not the opposition’s problem. He’s the Islamic Republic’s problem – and the only serious vehicle for an organized transition. The Lion and Sun of Iran is rising once again – not to threaten, but to stand beside allies, including Israel, as a future pillar of peace and regional stability.
The writer is an Iranian-American research professor and energy expert, as well as a political and human rights activist. Follow him on X: @Aidin_FreeIran.