The Jerusalem Post has received multiple indications that the US is considering some intervention in the ongoing Iran protests. At the same time, Israel is also checking if the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro will make action against the Iranian regime possible.
It appears that Israel was surprised by America's intervention in Venezuela and that this action scrambled Israeli calculations about what might be possible in the Islamic Republic.
Until the intervention by US President Donald Trump in Caracas, most Israeli officials did not view the protests against Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as necessarily approaching the volume necessary to achieve regime change.
In fact, by themselves, the protests are likely still viewed by Israel and the US as insufficient to topple Khamenei.
However, following the abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, this may have changed.
Washington and Israel explore regime change options in Iran
There are indications that Washington is weighing some targeted intervention to assist the protest movement to get over the top of the Iranian regime.
Likewise, Israel is also checking if the removal of Maduro will make action against the Iranian regime possible.
More specifically, the Mossad has publicly admitted on Twitter to assisting Iranian protesters in the field.
Iran has claimed it has even arrested one of these agents.
Further, Science and Technology Minister Gila Gamliel, who formerly was intelligence minister and had partial responsibility for certain Iran issues, recently wrote in the Post, "The world must...recognize the Iranian people as the key to lasting regional stability and support their aspirations for human rights, freedom, and self-determination, not only through words of sympathy, but through concrete actions whenever and wherever possible."
She continued, "History shows that regimes built on fear eventually collapse. When that moment arrives in Iran, the question will not be whether change was inevitable, but whether the world helped prepare the ground for a better future," showing support for concrete action, and not mere words of sympathy.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also held a special security meeting after the US actions in Venezuela.
Former defense minister Benny Gantz on Monday explicitly called for Israel and the US to intervene in Iran on behalf of the Iranian protesters to either cause the regime to surrender or topple it.
In June, both US and Israeli officials were universally opposed to seeking regime change, being focused on harming Iran's nuclear program and its ability to lash out in response to attacks on its nuclear program.
Yet, Tehran's weak attempts to recover from the June attacks, the protest movement, and America's quick ability to potentially influence the direction of Venezuelan policy by using military force, without having to mount a large ground invasion, may have changed the calculations.
Officials from both countries, as indicated above, now seem to be exploring new options. It is possible that the US may use some kind of threat of force and even limited force to prevent Khamenei from crushing the protest movement, in order to provide the movement more of a chance to grow.
Israeli officials, as indicated above, are exploring whether the removal of Maduro will make action against the Iranian regime possible.
There are no indications that a final choice has yet been made, especially with Trump still deciding how to handle the aftermath in Venezuela of having abducted Maduro.
But there are indications that, for the first time, there may be a belief that an intervention to assist protesters, which is short of a major invasion to topple the regime, may be viable.