Following the meeting between United States President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran is in the spotlight. Trump has indicated that he supports Israel’s concerns about Iran’s missile and nuclear programs.
This puts Iran on the defensive.
On the one hand, Iran could call the US and Israel’s bluff and continue building missiles and developing its weakened nuclear program. On the other hand, Iran may be worried that Trump is willing to support Israeli strikes. Iran doesn’t know either way, and that could create an unstable reaction in Tehran. Their inability to fathom Trump’s real goal is part of Trump’s calculations.
One way Iran is responding is by discussing its history.
In 2020, the first Trump administration ordered a drone strike in Iraq, which killed Iranian IRGC Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani. Iran’s state media on December 30 now has many articles about Soleimani. The message is clear. Iran remembers what Trump did before.
“Sheikh Maher Hammoud, head of the World Union of Resistance Scholars, says martyr Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani was the main obstacle to the realization of US-Israeli plans in the region, stressing that his role went beyond the battlefield to shaping a comprehensive strategy against terrorism,” Iran’s IRNA state media said. Hammoud said that the top anti-terror commander “was the main obstacle to the realization of these plans in the region.”
He went on to say that “by creating a linkage between military knowledge and a comprehensive Islamic belief, General Soleimani was able to plan an effective confrontation with terrorism that had targeted the Islamic world.” He also claimed Iran’s backing of the “resistance” of proxy forces in various countries was “pushed forward” after Soleimani’s death. This may relate to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. Many see Soleimani’s death as a setback; Iran is saying it isn’t.
“He noted that those who had not fully appreciated General Soleimani’s value came to understand it when the Americans placed him at the top of their targets and assassinated him, showing that his presence was ‘disturbing and dangerous’ for them,” IRNA says.
Iran’s Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, Abbas Salehi, is also focused on Soleimani. This may be, in part, because it is almost the anniversary of his death. However, the context of the US-Israel meeting seems more relevant.
The culture minister “described Martyr General Qassem Soleimani as a towering Iranian personality who devoted his entire life to safeguarding his country’s interests,” IRNA noted. Zeinab Soleimani, the daughter of Qasem Soleimani, also gave a speech this week.
A third IRNA article focused on Soleimani claimed that the US drone strike that killed him had harmed “diplomacy” between Tehran and Washington.
In addition, Ali Akbar Velayati, secretary-general of the World Assembly of Islamic Awakening and a key Iranian official, said that “enemies” had miscalculated Iran’s strength.
“In a message marking the sixth anniversary of the martyrdom of Lieutenant-General Qassem Soleimani, Velayati emphasized on Tuesday that the Israeli regime and its allies severely miscalculated Iran’s military capabilities during the June 12-day conflict with the Islamic Republic,” the IRNA report added. This is clearly directed at Israel to deter new strikes.
Tehran's response to protests across Iran
Meanwhile, Iran is also saying it is ready in case of aggression. The IRGC says “it would stand firmly against any unrest or territorial aggression, warning adversaries against miscalculation,” IRNA noted.
What is interesting here is that the statement was supposedly to mark rallies in 2009. Iran’s regime is talking about pro-government rallies, but there were also large protests in 2009. Today, there are many protests in Iran. It seems that Tehran is messaging that these protests will be beaten, like in 2009.
The IRGC says that the “defenders” of the regime are “prepared to confront any sedition, unrest, psychological or ‘cognitive’ warfare, security threat, or violation of the country’s territory.” The IRGC openly said that opponents of the government are seeking to “recreate past unrest.” Clearly, this is on the IRGC’s mind and that of the Basij militias in Iran. They fear plots against them.
While the IRGC prepares to fight internal enemies, there are also messages from Tehran that discuss possible dialogue. “Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei has said that Iran appreciates Iraq’s efforts to facilitate dialogue between Tehran and Washington, but any negotiation process must adhere to established diplomatic protocols in order to be effective and realistic,” IRNA noted.
Baqaei was speaking at a weekly press conference. “Commenting on the Iraqi prime minister’s announcement on efforts for Baghdad’s hosting direct talks between Iran and the US, Baqaei said Iraq’s concern for regional stability and security is commendable. Tehran always welcomes the sincere efforts of neighboring countries to reduce tensions, he noted, stressing that initiating a negotiation process requires commitment to proper diplomatic procedures, without which realistic dialogue cannot take place.”
However, Iran is lashing out in other arenas. Iran’s foreign minister put out a statement backing Venezuela against the US. Iran also claimed to have designated the Royal Canadian Navy as a terrorist organization “in a reciprocal response to Ottawa’s earlier decision to list Iran’s IRGC as a terrorist entity,” the Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday.
These are part of countermeasures “against countries that support or follow the United States’ designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization. The ministry said Canada’s decision violated fundamental principles of international law by branding an official branch of Iran’s Armed Forces as a terrorist group.”