Contrary to the belligerent rhetoric coming from the Iranian regime’s leadership, there is currently no sense of urgency or concrete preparation for an attack, Dr. Menachem Merhavi, a researcher specializing in modern Iran and Shia Islam, told Maariv in an interview published Thursday.
The interview occurred in an attempt to understand the current mentality in the Islamic Republic amid reports from Tehran regarding a lack of trust in the stability of the ceasefire with Israel and threats from Iranian officials that “Israel will face a crushing and severe response if it attacks again.”
“I don’t see or detect any fear of an attack, at least not in the near future, it doesn’t feel like something that’s in the air,” he said. “The Iranians are currently focused on damage control, hunting down collaborators with Israel – real or imagined.”
Merhavi believes that the Iranians are currently trying to find a way to return to the negotiating table with the United States, without losing their prestige.
“The Iranians are looking for a formula that will allow them to exit this situation peacefully, without another attack, and additionally try to preserve their honor in negotiations with the US when they begin,” he explained.
“The American demand is essentially that there be no enrichment at all. They do not agree to that. However, perhaps they will manage to reach a formula that was not possible a month ago – for enrichment at low percentages or in a different location, not in Iran. That’s what they are aiming for.”
Iranian public wants peace
Regarding the internal situation in the country, Dr. Merhavi notes that despite strong statements from the leadership, the Iranian public itself wants peace.
“From the perspective of the Iranian public, they are trying to return to routine and recover,” he said. “In Iran, there is a consensus that the country is allowed and should enrich uranium – it is seen as a national right – but it’s a question of cost, and I’m sure no Iranian citizen wants to pay the price they have begun to pay.
"I would divide the Iranian public between the more conservative ones and those who are more skeptical about the regime’s ability to protect them from an outside attack,” he added. “Therefore, they don’t want to face that test. They don’t want what happened to happen again – and they will do everything they can to prevent it. They cannot afford another such clash with the US.”