Is the Saudi defense pact misunderstood amid Houthi attacks? - analysis

Riyadh had been working on cementing a new defensive alliance with Turkey and Pakistan on the eve of the Houthi attacks. Now, some commentators appear to believe that the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey pact may already be in jeopardy.

The question is whether this could be a misreading of what is going on.

First, a sampling of articles.

“The Houthis have exposed [the] Saudi-Pak-Turkey pact for what it is,” India’s NDTV reported.

“Why the Mecca defense pact hasn’t triggered action against the Houthis,” Middle East Eye reported, adding that a “Turkish official argues that the new alliance with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan needs time to become operational.”

Just days or weeks ago, reports suggested more countries might join the pact. Deutsche Welle (DW) news channel, for instance, reported: “While Bangladesh weighs the risks of signing the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, experts warn that such a move could complicate relations.”

“Fighting between Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement and Saudi forces is increasingly testing how long Pakistan can hold both positions,” it added.

The assumption that the tripartite agreement, aka Mecca Pact, might lead to Turkey and Pakistan fighting the Houthis may be part of the false assumptions about the alliance itself. It is a defensive alliance.

It can be argued that since the Saudis intervened in Yemen in 2015, it is not a “defensive war.” In addition, the war was already ongoing when the deal was signed.

There was no hint in the signing that Riyadh was going to call on the two countries to send troops to Yemen or send air defenses to the kingdom. Furthermore, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were already working together on defense issues, and Pakistan was not being asked to go into Yemen.

It might be instructive to look back at other historic alliances to understand the challenges that are faced by the new partners.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded in 1949 by the United States, Canada, and 10 Western European countries amid growing tensions with the Soviet Union. Its central principle, Article 5, considers an attack on one member an attack on all.

NATO expanded during the Cold War and confronted the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the alliance admitted numerous Central and Eastern European states and conducted operations in the Balkans and Afghanistan.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reshaped NATO’s priorities, strengthening its focus on collective defense and leading Finland and Sweden to join the alliance.

What was NATO’s role in some of the conflicts that the US fought around the world? It didn’t feel compelled to go into Vietnam, for instance. This was a far-off war, removed from the concept of confronting the Soviets in Europe. It also was a war in which the US intervened, although it was not attacked.

NATO was not involved in the Falklands War, even though the UK had been attacked. It didn’t get involved in Northern Ireland either.

Yemen may be more akin to Vietnam for Saudi Arabia. It’s a complex conflict in which Riyadh is backing the internationally recognized government. As such, it is like the US backing South Vietnam against the Vietnamese insurgency or the Viet Cong.

The Houthis are the Viet Cong. They are hard to beat in a similar manner. They have also been acquiring more sophisticated weapons from foreign powers, just like weapons from the Soviets and China were trekked down the Ho Chi Minh Trail.

Saudi Arabia might benefit from some advice from Turkey and Pakistan. Such benefits, however, could be limited.

Pakistan has a large army, and although it has fought insurgencies for years, it has not been particularly successful at defeating them. Turkey has also been fighting wars for years. It fought the PKK, for instance. Ankara’s experience was more successful than Pakistan’s.

The question for Saudi Arabia is what it wants now. Riyadh has to decide on its policy. Until it does so, its partners can’t ride to the rescue.