Israel’s approach to expanding relations with regional players must be one of “trust, but verify,” Dr. Jonathan Ghariani, a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies and coordinator of the Morocco-Israel Policy Forum, told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday, invoking the proverb popularized by former US president Ronald Reagan during nuclear disarmament negotiations with the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
Ghariani offered an optimistic assessment of Jerusalem’s diplomatic prospects, despite a recent KAN report suggesting that a country had been advised to reach an agreement with Israel to lull it into a false sense of security before launching an attack, as well as concerns that a new agreement between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia could spell disaster for Israel.
He argued that, despite statements by Pakistani officials blaming Israel for Iran’s attacks on regional countries, the war had helped thaw some of the region’s previously cool attitudes toward Israel, even if those developments remained largely under the table.
Already tied to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain by the Abraham Accords, he said Jerusalem’s coordination with Abu Dhabi and Manama had only improved since March, and the benefits of that partnership were seen across the region.
In July, Israeli officials confirmed reports that Israel had sent the UAE the Iron Dome battery and interceptors, allowing dozens of attacks by Iran to be quickly intercepted.
Israel still has chance to expand the Abraham Accords, expert says
“The Abraham Accords have been a highly successful story. I believe that they will continue, and that the relationships between Israel and the signatories of the Abraham Accords will continue to grow,” he said, adding that in his position as the coordinator of the Morocco-Israel Forum he has seen achievements in the fields of academia and defense.
“Morocco and Israel are cooperating heavily in terms of weapons production facilities. There are actually plans for joint UAV production between Israel and Morocco. Morocco has also invited Israel to participate in several military drills. So, no, I’m confident that the relationship will continue to evolve, and we might actually see an expansion of the Abraham Accords.”
Even Kuwait, he said, which has said it would be the last state to normalize ties with Israel, has started “changing” its outlook thanks to Iran’s attacks.
Though Riyadh has denied the claim, Ghariani said Saudi Arabia had intercepted missiles aimed at Israel, arguing that such actions demonstrate the impact of the US-sponsored Middle East Air Defense Alliance, spearheaded by Benny Gantz in 2022. He said the initiative had already begun to change regional perceptions of Israel now that its effects are being felt.
Speaking on the agreement between Saudi Arabia and two countries with hostile stances towards Israel, Ghariani said that the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement is not a “formal alliance” in his eyes, and he could not imagine Ankara or Riyadh being willing to fight against India on Pakistan’s behalf. So far, notably, the signatories have not responded to recent attacks on Saudi Arabia.
With little action having followed the defense pact, Ghariani said he doubted that the prospect of Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords had completely evaporated, even if the political climate in either Israel or Saudi Arabia was not yet conducive to such a move.
He said the next generation, particularly Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, remained interested in such a development, although many in the older generation continued to uphold the demands outlined in the Arab Peace Initiative, including an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and east Jerusalem.
“The Saudis have taken steps in that direction. They have opened their airspace and actually allowed Israeli airliners to fly over Saudi territory, and they have even invited Israeli ministers to take part in international events,” he said.
“So I don’t know, but I’m confident it might happen at some point. There is a convergence of interests. Saudi Arabia still sees Iran as its primary enemy, its primary adversary.”
Will Turkey threaten Israel directly in the future?
Though unconcerned by Riyadh, Ghariani maintained that Turkey’s expanding influence was concerning.
“Turkey could be a formidable threat in the future, potentially more formidable than Iran because it is a NATO ally and has one of the strongest militaries in the world,” he said. “...Turkey is actually taking advantage of the situation, and it is indeed trying to become the hegemon in the Middle East, especially starting with Syria. But would an open conflict actually happen between Israel and Turkey? I doubt it at this stage.”
Advising that Qatar, a “wild card,” should remain firmly on Israel’s radar, Ghariani said Doha’s close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and continued relations with Iran, despite its attacks, make it a country whose influence Israel should monitor carefully, particularly given its status as one of Washington’s closest non-NATO allies.
“We can see the emergence of this kind of Qatar-Turkey axis taking shape and spreading its influence in Gaza, with Hamas, but also in Syria, and that is indeed a very worrying phenomenon,” he shared.
“Qatar also maintains very strong ties with the United States. It is a major non-NATO ally, and it hosts the largest US military base in the region. This is indeed quite alarming. The fact that they have so much influence in terms of policy, while at the same time they have been hit hard by an Iranian missile barrage but continue to maintain relations with Iran, is indeed a worrying phenomenon.”
Beyond hedging bets like other states have tried to do by establishing new partnerships, Qatar and Turkey have been working to expand their “nefarious” influence and “spread their ideology” across the Middle East, perhaps threatening the progress Israel is making, he concluded.