US Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to the Gulf to meet with key US partners in the region, with a goal of showcasing “strong partnerships,” the US Department of State stated.
Rubio was in the UAE and then Kuwait. As the visits wrapped up, the US State Department was focused on discussing support for Venezuela in the wake of two powerful earthquakes there. The visits to Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE are important, as these countries were attacked by Iran during the latest conflict.
In Bahrain on June 25, Rubio met with Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani at a meeting with the Gulf Cooperation Council member states. During the meeting, Rubio emphasized US opposition to any kind of toll being levied on ships using the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, other Gulf countries are also looking at what might come next. Qatar, for instance, has played a key role in mediating talks with Iran and the US. Alongside Pakistan, it has been involved in talks in Switzerland, where US Vice-President JD Vance is the point person on talks with Iran.
US policymaking in the Middle East has often been somewhat segmented under the Trump administration. This element of the Trump doctrine has meant that Rubio, Vance, and others, such as Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and Tom Barrack, have played various roles in US policy initiatives. For instance, Ambassador Barrack, who is the ambassador to Turkey, is now also the envoy to Syria and Iraq.
During the Iran conflict, it appeared that Rubio was less involved in the Middle East. His trip this week showcased his continued role in the region in the wake of the conflict.
With the Iran conflict on hiatus for sixty days while the talks in Switzerland play out, the question for the Gulf countries is what to do next. For the most powerful and leading states, such as Saudi Arabia, this means working with Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and other countries. For the smaller but important states, such as the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait, this will mean considering the next steps.
Now is 'critical time' for region, Bahrain FM says
Bahrain’s foreign minister, Zayani, spoke about the challenges in the region. “This is a critical time for the region," he stated. "The attacks against our countries tested us in ways we had hoped never to face, yet they also revealed the strength of and resilience of our societies and the effectiveness of our institutions and defense forces in protecting lives and preserving stability.”
He also said that “our citizens endured uncertainty and disruption of the peace and security that define our region. These experiences have only strengthened our resolve to ensure that such attacks are never normalized and to work with our partners to reinforce the foundations of enduring peace, security, and stability for future generations.”
The Bahrain foreign minister also announced that “after the grave challenges we faced, today we see a glimmer of hope for our region, and welcome diplomatic efforts resulting in an end to hostilities with the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, supported by the mediation of Pakistan and Qatar, and the restoration of free and secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. In this regard, we welcome the announcement by Oman of a temporary maritime corridor for vessels wishing to transit through the strait.”
Bahrain noted that it was important to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and that freedom of navigation was important. The country also called for a “definitive end to missile and drone attacks, ceasing support for militias, and halting interference in the sovereignty of our states.”
Rubio warned in the meeting about the risk of Iran trying to impose tolls on ships, and how this would lead to chaos around the world. “International waterways do not belong to any nation-state," he explained at the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting in Bahrain. "This is a foundational principle in the world today, without which the world would be in total chaos. If, in fact, we accepted that you can charge money to use an international waterway because it happens to be near your territorial space, well then, this will spread throughout the world like a contagion.”
Rubio’s comments at the meeting in Bahrain aimed to shore up US commitments and support for the Gulf. He said the US would not make any agreements that would threaten the security of US partners in the Gulf.
The Gulf countries have been willing to hedge for years as they watch the global order change. This has included some countries conducting outreach to Iran or considering joining other economic blocs, such as BRICS. The war with Iran has now raised further concerns in this region.
Gulf nations pursuing new defense strategies
“Former officials and analysts see the Gulf nations adopting several new strategies to protect themselves. They are likely adapting to living with Tehran’s growing power, investing more resources in defense while their fragile unity further erodes,” Al-Hurra noted this week. “Yet Gulf nations appear to be negotiating on their own with Tehran. In an interview published June 24 in the Financial Times, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said Gulf countries are working on a regional security framework with Iran. ‘That will hopefully have economic co-operation in the future between all of us - to bring the region back to stability,’ he said.”
The report also noted that Gawdat Bahgat, a professor of national security affairs at Washington’s National Defense University, “points out that Gulf countries are also deepening defense ties with China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Britain, France, Germany, and other European nations, as part of their strategy to diversify security cooperation in anticipation of future uncertainty.” It also added that analysts see the Gulf countries as "far from united in a single coalition. The fallout from the Iran war has exacerbated the differences among GCC members, pushing them to pursue divergent paths.”
This means that while Rubio’s visit is important, these countries are also discussing what comes next among themselves. They are concerned that the US rushed into the war with Iran without consulting them. They prioritize stability and caution. In the past, they preferred to de-escalate with Iran, such as after the 2019 attack on Abqaiq and the mining of vessels off the coast of Fujairah in the UAE. They wonder if the US will be as committed and consistent in the future. As such, it’s likely that they will consider hedging by reaching out to Iran, other regional powers such as Pakistan, and China.