Many countries in the region are breathing a sigh of relief following the ceasefire between the US and Iran, as the Middle East was plunged into a war that most of them did not want.
Iraq was one of the main victims, while also being a perpetrator. Over the past decade, the Iraqi government has empowered Iranian-backed militias, which used Iraq to carry out hundreds of attacks during the US war with Iran, essentially spreading the war to Iraq.
The Iranian-backed proxies in Iraq are often known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, or Hashd al-Shaabi. They also have rebranded themselves as the “Islamic Resistance” when they carry out attacks. As such, these groups are both part of the Iraqi government and pose as being outside the government when they carry out attacks. They have spread chaos across Iraq over the past month and a half.
Meanwhile, Iraq is also seeking to export oil. With the Strait of Hormuz expected to open, Iraq hopes its large oil economy can get back on track. Without exports, the country will be plunged further into financial disaster.
Iraq has sought to shore up its short-term position by exporting some goods through its autonomous Kurdistan Region and Turkey. Some exports can also be trucked to Syria. Iraq, however, prefers to send its exports via the Persian Gulf.
“No ship carrying Iraqi oil has passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said on Thursday, citing ongoing security concerns in the vital waterway,” Kurdistan Region-based news channel Rudaw Media Network reported Thursday.
Meanwhile, Iraq is exporting around 200,000 barrels per day via the Kurdistan Region. This could increase to 300,000 barrels per day.
The Iraqis are still trying to tally up the losses due to the war
Another disaster for Iraq has been the closure of airports. This has left people stranded inside and outside the country. There are also lost revenues. “According to estimates, the losses caused by 40 days of closing the Kurdistan Region’s airspace to domestic and international flights – due to the US-Israel war against Iran – exceed $400 million,” Rudaw reported.
“This estimate is based on flight data from March-April 2024, when the total number of annual flights exceeded 21,000 and more than 2.4 million passengers were transported,” the report continued.
“Year by year, the number of air flights in the Kurdistan Region changes, mostly increasing,” the report said.
“However, since 2011, when data became available, the Region’s airspace has handled between 20,000 and 30,000 flights annually, with international flights exceeding domestic ones.”
Meanwhile, Iraq is expected to try to find the culprits behind some of the attacks over the last month. According to reports, a suspect has been found in a drone attack that killed a French soldier. Iraq has been slow to detain the suspects in the kidnapping of US journalist Shelly Kittleson, who was freed after a week of being held. She was likely kidnapped by Kataib Hezbollah, the same Iranian-backed group behind the kidnapping of Elizabeth Tsurkov in 2023.
The Iraqis are still trying to tally up the losses due to the war.
The Kurdistan Region says it has been struck by 700 drones and missiles since February 28. Many of these targeted US facilities, such as the consulate, as well as the UAE consulate in Erbil, and Kurdish Iranian opposition groups.
Pressure is now mounting on the Kurdistan Region to close opposition groups' offices. Iran will likely want to crack down on Kurds, and it could continue to target the Kurdistan Region.