There is no question, and has been no question, since Israel struck Iran in June, that the current threat is the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile program and not the nuclear program.
As reported repeatedly by The Jerusalem Post, the nuclear program was pushed back by around two years, and little progress has been made toward shortening that timeline.
In contrast, Iran has been in overdrive to restore and multiply its ballistic missile volume and capabilities, with special help from the Chinese, despite threats from the Mossad regarding the consequences of assisting Tehran.
So when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presents the issue to US President Donald Trump around December 29, one hopes that Washington will support some kind of Israeli redline by which Jerusalem, with or without America, would be given the green light to attack the ballistic missile program a second time if necessary.
The idea would not be that different from the reason Israel attacked the ballistic missile program in June: to prevent the Islamic Republic from reaching a volume of ballistic missiles that can overwhelm Israel’s missile defense shield.
That was not as extraordinary as the fact that the IDF’s Arrow 2 and 3 air defense systems shot down around 86% of Iran’s deadly ballistic missiles, which soar into space and then descend to strike their target.
Only 36 out of Iran’s 550 missiles bypassed Israel’s defenses. And 36 missiles killed 28 Israelis, wounded thousands, and damaged 13,000 residences.
What if Iran fired 5,500 missiles and 360 got through? Would that kill 280 Israelis, wound tens of thousands, and damage 130,000 residences?
And what if Iran sees fit to fire more missiles than it did last time? How much worse would the conflict become?
When alarmism harms truth
This is not alarmism – it is simple math.
And yet, someone, whether an Israeli official, a US official, or an NBC reporter, then trumpeted by Israeli reporters, made a major error on Saturday night, which could harm Israel’s case.
On Saturday, NBC made the astonishing claim that Iran could eventually start making 3,000 ballistic missiles per month.
When the Post says “astonishing,” that means astonishingly wrong, impossible, and not even close to reality.
NBC’s report was wrong by either adding an extra zero or by saying “month” instead of a year. The threat has always been that Iran might produce up to 300 ballistic missiles per month, not 3,000 per month.
The Post immediately noticed this error because it was exposed to classified briefings about Iran’s nuclear program.
Both the Post and other media reported in June that Israel had been worried that, by mid-2028, Iran might get up to 8,800 missiles, up from the 2,500 it had at the time.
This was a disturbing timeline, but it did not mean Israel did not have time.
Rather, it meant that the cost of attacking Iran’s nuclear program was going to escalate over time.
After the war, Iran’s ballistic missile program was estimated to be down by around 50%, reduced to somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 missiles.
If Iran starts producing 300 missiles per month, it could get back to where it was this past June within a few months.
But it would take longer, a year or two, to get to the numbers that could overwhelm Israel’s missile shield.
Also, Israel learned from its last round with Iran and is producing more Arrow defense missiles than it did before.
The Post learned from top Israeli defense sources that the deal with Germany is allowing Israel to produce even more Arrows, not only for Berlin, but also for protecting the Jewish state.
NBC’s error stayed online for at least seven hours and was picked up by Israeli media, who reported it without casting any doubt on its inaccurate numbers.
Curiously, within a couple of hours of the Post alerting multiple Israeli security sources, the NBC report was eventually corrected.
But the incorrect number and how quickly Israeli media jumped on it are important.
Regardless of who got it wrong, it can draw doubt on Israeli intelligence estimates.
It can suggest Israel is exaggerating to generate “warmongering,” as opposed to providing hard, concrete, defensible intelligence.
When Americans, intelligence officials, and the public deem Israelis as alarmists, it can become nearly impossible to achieve anything.
This has happened many times in the past.
Israel’s concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile program are real.
But it should not exaggerate, and Israeli media must be careful not to amplify exaggerated reports.
Rather, Israel needs to stick to the real numbers, which are scary enough on their own. This may also mean that Jerusalem cannot make a case for attacking Iran in the coming months or even before the upcoming election.
Maybe the real redline date is 12 or 18 months from now.
If so, the election should not influence the timing.
Israeli intelligence credibility and real security concerns are too large to play games with.