Turkey eyes more influence in Iraq, Syria, Gaza after deal - analysis

Ankara was one of the main critics of Israel’s war in Gaza. Turkey’s ruling AK Party and Hamas both have roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, and Turkey has welcomed Hamas leaders in the past.

Hamas is important to Turkey, giving Ankara more influence among Palestinians. Turkey has worked hard to repair regional ties in recent years, reaching out to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and it views the new government in Syria as an ally.

It also has Qatar as an ally, and Turkey and Qatar are both US allies. As such, the deal to end the war in Gaza was paved partly through Ankara and Doha working with Trump.

Turkey is already making key moves in the region to secure the payoff from hopes to end the war. It welcomed the president of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to Ankara on October 9 – right after the deal was agreed in Sinai in the late hours of October 8. Thus, Ankara was already on a roll.

Erdogan told Nechirvan Barzani, the president of the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq, that Turkey views Iraq’s peace and security as important and inseparable from Turkey’s own security. For decades, Ankara has had military bases in northern Iraq, where it claims to be fighting the PKK.

“The meeting at the Presidential Complex in the Turkish capital Ankara addressed Turkiye-Iraq relations, cooperation with the KRG, and regional developments, Turkiye’s Communications Directorate said on Turkish social media platform NSosyal. Turkey aims to promote peace and stability in the region, said Erdogan, stressing the importance of Iraq steering clear of any cycle of violence, and noting that Ankara is closely following the steps taken by the KRG in this respect,” Turkey’s Anadolu news agency said.

“Erdogan also expressed hope that next month’s Iraqi parliamentary elections would be beneficial for all Iraqi people. The Turkish president also welcomed the agreement reached between the Iraq’s central government and the KRG on oil issues, stressing that achieving consensus on the Development Road project in the near term would also serve the interests of the entire region.”

Meanwhile, over the weekend, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra met with Haluk Gorgun, president of the Defense Industry Agency of Turkey. The meeting took place in Damascus, Syrian state media SANA said.

“According to a statement from the Ministry of Defense shared via its Telegram channel, the two sides discussed a range of mutual topics and explored ways to enhance cooperation in the field of defense industries between Syria and Turkey,” SANA noted. “In mid-August, the Syrian and Turkish Defense Ministries signed an agreement for joint military cooperation. The pact aims to enhance the capabilities of the Syrian Arab Army, strengthen its institutional structure, and support the country’s ongoing comprehensive security sector reform.”

Turkey is also angling to be involved in any type of interim role in Gaza. Its Defense Ministry said on Friday that “the Turkish Armed Forces are ready to take on any mission assigned to them as part of the Gaza Task Force,” Anadolu reported in Turkey.

“In response to a question about whether Turkish forces will join the Gaza Task Force, Defense Ministry spokesman Zeki Akturk said the military has previously participated in numerous international missions organized by various institutions across different regions to ensure global peace and security.

“He said the Turkish army’s professionalism and fair stance have earned the respect of all parties, adding, ‘Our Armed Forces, which have extensive experience in establishing and maintaining peace, stand ready to undertake any mission assigned to them.’”

Turkey is moving quickly to consolidate gains in Syria and Iraq in the wake of the Gaza deal. It hopes to then have a role in Gaza as well.