“The fate of Hezbollah’s weapons is sealed: Hezbollah will not disarm,” Col. (ret.) Jacques Neriah, a former policy adviser to prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, told Maariv on Monday. He noted that pushing Hezbollah to disarm, as the government moved to do, would risk plunging the country into a civil war.
Neriah, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, analyzed a recent speech by Nabih Berri, leader of the Lebanese Shi’ite movement Amal and speaker of the Lebanese parliament.
“Berri... said that American demands for the disarmament of Hezbollah should not be met. Instead, a national dialogue should be held for a joint defense strategy,” Neriah explained, saying this is for when Israel does not intend to withdraw from the land it occupied in the recent war with Hezbollah.
“In doing so, the Amal leader adopted Hezbollah’s position, which calls first for Israel to withdraw, the reconstruction of southern Lebanon, and the end of all Israeli military activity in Lebanon before agreeing to discuss disarming Hezbollah.”
“To put it simply,” he said, “Hezbollah and Amal, the two major Shi’ite movements in the country, are telling the Lebanese president and prime minister: Forget the government’s decision regarding Hezbollah’s disarmament – it won’t happen. It’s better for us to sit together and discuss a strategy for dealing with Israel.”
As Neriah explained, there is already movement in the Lebanese government to agree with Amal and Hezbollah, with the most notable agreement coming from Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri. The former policy adviser further credited US and Israeli statements – in particular that of Sen. Lindsay Graham regarding the Plan B of forcing Hezbollah to dismantle through military action – of adding fuel to the fire.
Preventing a Lebanese civil war
“Hezbollah is in the midst of preparing to oppose the Lebanese government if it decides to continue the effort to disarm Hezbollah in the event that the organization, and Iran, decide to confront Israel,” Neriah said.
“In the meantime, the first cracks are emerging in the relationship between Lebanese and US envoys. Tom Barrack was unable to visit Al-Khiyam and Tyre due to anti-American protests.”
Ultimately, the Lebanese government has few options, Neriah said. “Continue the attempt at disarmament and risk a renewed civil war, or use the Israeli announcement that Israel won’t withdraw before Hezbollah disarms as an excuse to stop the process of implementing the government decision, stating that the Lebanese army [should] submit a plan to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025. In any case, this would be a classic Lebanese compromise that would be preferable to a frontal confrontation with Hezbollah.”