As the New Year begins, it is crucial to examine the challenges that Israel faces. It’s worth looking at them one at a time and examining the hurdles that Israel still faces.
Gaza
In Gaza, the IDF controls half the territory, and Hamas controls the other half. The goal of the ceasefire is to disarm Hamas and put a new governing authority in charge of Gaza. In addition, an international stabilization force is supposed to be deployed. These are multi-layered challenges that will be difficult to deal with.
Hamas has said it will not disarm. The question is what that disarmament may look like. Is it confiscating thousands of rifles? Or is it a “trust but verify” situation, in that Israel must make sure that Hamas isn’t building more rockets and other, larger weapons?
This will be the big challenge. Disarmament must be defined. There will need to be a way to separate Hamas from the civilians of Gaza. If that is not done, then the terror group will simply continue to rule as it has after all previous Gaza wars over the past two decades.
Lebanon
Lebanon presents a similar problem to Gaza. Hezbollah refuses to disarm. The government in Beirut is pretending that it is making progress. However, there is a similar “trust but verify” problem in Lebanon.
How will the disarmament of Hezbollah be accomplished? What is the goal and how can it be accounted for? Is it a certain number of weapons turned over to the state? Is it a reduction in Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon? And how will we know when Hezbollah and the government in Beirut have met their commitments? At the moment, it seems that Hezbollah is as arrogant as it has been in the past. It seeks to retain its weaponry and its influence.
Syria
Israel chose to neither embrace nor work with the new Syrian government in 2025. This was a clear choice and one that could have gone a different way. Israel has demanded that southern Syria be demilitarized and said that it will support the Druze in southern Syria. This creates an open-ended commitment for Israel in Syria.
In addition, the IDF has been conducting raids in the border area. The IDF controls a buffer zone along the border and has extended Israel’s role within Syrian territory, such as atop Mount Hermon.
For now, the Syrian government has many other issues it needs to focus on. However, recent Jordanian airstrikes near Sweida, the Druze area, raise questions about whether Amman is tiring of the power vacuum in southern Syria. This vacuum is, in part, due to Israel’s policies. That means that Jerusalem will need to decide in the coming year if it wants to compromise with Damascus or continue to have an antagonistic relationship.
Weapons smuggling from Egypt’s Sinai
There has been a major increase in the use of drones to smuggle weapons from Egypt’s Sinai into the Negev. Drones are being intercepted every week with large numbers of firearms, including M-4 and M-16 type rifles. This is a significant security concern. Correlating with the weapons flow into Israel is the rise of gun violence in the country.
Israeli police are also trying to increase law and order in the Negev. This means that the Negev may be an emerging challenge in terms of security. Preventing arms smuggling from Egypt is important.
Iran
Iran continues to pose a threat via its ballistic missile program. Trump has signaled support for Israel on the Iranian front.
However, Trump also strove for a ceasefire after the 12-Day War. This means he may be reluctant to jump into another crisis with Iran. The goal of supporting Israel is to deter Iran.
Meanwhile, messages are apparently being sent in an attempt to reduce tensions. With protests happening in Iran, it is unclear what may come next.
The West Bank
The challenge of confronting terror threats remains in the West Bank. While the IDF now has a new division that is helping secure the Jordanian border, it is clear that weapons are likely being smuggled into the West Bank. Constant IDF raids maintain the enemy weakened.
However, there may be trouble ahead. The Palestinian Authority still does not have a successor for its president, Mahmoud Abbas. This means that there could be security challenges if the PA appears weakened. The US is apparently concerned about this and has told Jerusalem as much.
The Abraham Accords
For years, people expected that the Abraham Accords could expand to include new countries that don’t have relations with Israel. However, it currently appears that it will be difficult to get ties with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is not happy regarding Yemen and Somalia. It appears to oppose Israel’s ties with Somaliland. It is also concerning that the UAE, a member of the Accords, is increasingly involved in Yemen.
As such, Saudi Arabia appears to be drifting away from normalization. Riyadh also wants to see changes in Israel’s view of the Palestinian issue. Other countries could join, but some of the candidates are countries that already have ties with Israel. Their joining is therefore more symbolic than a historical shift.
Israel’s arms procurement
Israel is seeking to put large sums of money into becoming more self-sufficient in the coming years. Israel is also buying more weapon systems from the US, such as an $8 billion deal for more F-15s. Israeli defense companies continue to reach new heights in terms of sales and ties to foreign defense industries.
This is all very important for Israel. However, it leads to questions about what kind of investment Israel will push to become more self-sufficient. It also leads to questions about how a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the US will look in terms of US aid to Israel for defense procurement, aid that has stood at over $3 billion a year. Navigating this question and how Israel and the US will jointly develop defense systems is a key issue for the future.