Israel’s negotiation strategy has collapsed, according to Dr. Avner Saar, a negotiation expert and lecturer at the Western Galilee Academic College, who warned that the government is facing a dramatic strategic decision.
Amid the deadlock in negotiations for the release of hostages and the ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip, Saar told Maariv that decision-makers must clearly choose between two conflicting objectives - releasing the hostages or continuing the destruction of Hamas - arguing that trying to pursue both simultaneously only deepens strategic failure.
"The deadlock Israel has reached in negotiations with the Hamas organization requires a sharp, clear, and uncompromising strategic decision," Saar said.
"It is not possible to hold both ends of the spectrum: to release the hostages - a paramount moral, public, and national goal - and to completely destroy Hamas while demolishing the Gaza Strip. These are inherently contradictory objectives, and the attempt to achieve both simultaneously leads to a loss of direction, wasted resources, and the deepening of the strategic failure."
According to Saar, Hamas holds the most powerful card in its hands - the hostages. He described them as a top-tier strategic asset that grants the organization tremendous leverage in negotiations.
"The hostages held in Gaza - under harsh and inhumane conditions - are Hamas's primary source of power. They are a top-tier strategic asset that allows the organization to negotiate from a position of strength, extort concessions, paralyze Israeli military operations, amplify global criticism of Israeli policy, and deepen social divisions within Israel.
"As long as this asset remains in their hands, Hamas has an effective leverage that helps them buy time, dictate the agenda, and strengthen their position, even among the Palestinian public."
Hamas fears a renewed Israeli offensive
Saar also identified a central paradox in the current deadlock: the more Hamas fears a renewed Israeli offensive after a potential deal, the more it hardens its stance and raises its demands.
"The fact that Hamas believes that even after a future deal, Israel might return to using force to 'finish the job,' increases its fear of reaching a deal and leads it to harden its positions. It operates coldly and purposefully, knowing that time works in its favor. This explains why its demands increase as the discussions progress - and why the chances of a breakthrough are shrinking."
Despite the impasse, Saar maintained that both sides still have a real interest in continuing negotiations - but stressed that time is working against Israel.
"There is still a relevant strategic starting point: both sides have a significant interest in continuing the negotiations. Israel wants the return of the hostages, and Hamas, for its part, seeks a ceasefire, the release of prisoners, and the assurance of its political survival. But at this stage, the waiting is benefiting Hamas more than Israel."