Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned the possibility of an agreement with Syria, as well as with Lebanon, during his speech to the UN General Assembly on Friday, but challenges remain that so far keep Israel from making peace with both these neighbors.
With Syria, Israel has sought to extend its demands to include protecting the Druze in Sweida. This potentially makes Israel closely linked with developments inside Syria for years to come.
Israel wants to protect minorities in Syria and the region; however, historically this has been difficult to do.
During the 1980s, then-prime minister Menachem Begin sought to aid the Christians of Lebanon and also to defeat Palestinian terrorists on the border. However, an Israeli invasion then became bogged down.
In Syria, Israel has treaded more carefully. The IDF has expanded operations along the border where the 1974 ceasefire line has dominated for the last 50 years. The IDF also seized the height of Mount Hermon.
Syria claims the IDF frequently carries out raids near the border. The IDF has also carried out airstrikes. Israel wants southern Syria demilitarized near the border.
This hearkens back to demands Israel made of the Assad regime after it returned to the border in 2018 that it keep Iranian-backed threats at a distance of some 60 kilometers or more.
However, the Iranians were able to seep in closer to the border. The problem now is that if the Syrian government is weak in Dara’a province and Quneitra near the Golan, enemies may move into the power vacuum. Also, Jordan will not want the border to be one of chaos.
Jordan, the US, and Syria want a deal and road map regarding Sweida. US envoy Tom Barrack has sought to work on this. Israel may want to avoid more confrontations in Syria. At the same time, Israel wants to stand by its word regarding the Druze.
The Druze may feel emboldened, which may harden their stance regarding accommodation with Damascus. This could create a vicious cycle where the Druze expect more support and this alienates them from dealing with Syria’s new transitional government.
That, in turn, could create problems between Damascus and the US-backed SDF, which is mostly Kurdish-led, in eastern Syria.
Syria wants an agreement with Israel but wants its sovereignty respected. It doesn’t want more Israeli raids and attacks. However, it knows that it is in a weak position for now. There may be a limited deal, brokered by the US. However, normalization is a long way off.
In Lebanon, the problem continues to be Hezbollah. Israel carries out several airstrikes a week on Hezbollah. The government of Lebanon doesn’t want the strikes to continue, but it refuses to disarm the terrorist organization.
It sought to first disarm Palestinian camps in Lebanon.
However, it seems afraid of Hezbollah. It will need to move forward if peace is to be achieved. Israel will continue to strike Hezbollah threats, creating a challenge for the Lebanese leadership.
However, Lebanon is a natural partner for peace. Its population likely wants peace but continues to be saddled with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its arsenal. A year ago, Israel weakened Hezbollah and its arsenal and eliminated its key leaders, but the group is still a threat despite being weaker.
Netanyahu’s speech at the UN presented a kind of olive branch to Lebanon and Syria. However, there are conditions. Both countries will continue to present a challenge. Both borders will likely present a challenge as well, because the border areas are not well controlled by the neighboring state.