Iran should come to the table and make a deal, US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday. He also said a “massive armada” of US ships is heading to Iran.
This is a reference to the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which has been sailing to the waters off Iran over the past week and a half.
Trump’s shifting tone on Iran is part of the administration’s approach. He is now warning that a new conflict with Iran would be worse than the 12-day war last summer.
During that war, the Trump administration acted as a kind of “closer,” coming in at the end with airstrikes and then getting a ceasefire deal.
Iran was struck a blow in 2025, but reports say it still has plenty of drones and ballistic missiles, and it also continues to have a damaged nuclear program.
The challenge for the Trump administration is trying to figure out the best path forward. Reports have suggested it could try anything, including a naval blockade or a strike against Iran’s supreme leader.
There are many factors in play as well. Iran has been pumping out propaganda about how it might respond, suggesting strikes against the US carrier and throughout the region. It has also suggested mobilizing proxies in Iraq and the region to attack US forces or Israel.
The threats to Israel and potential threats to the Gulf states have also led the US to want to have the carrier strike group in the region. US partners in the Gulf don’t want to have their airspace or US bases they host used for the strikes, because they fear retaliation. The carrier strike group gives plausible deniability.
What is the overall arc of how we got here?
'Maximum pressure' campaign on Iran
Trump came into office in his first term seeking to undo the Iran deal of 2015. Key members of the first Trump administration, such as Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, were hawks on dealing with Iran.
Trump did walk away from the Iran deal and place sanctions on the country. This was part of a “maximum pressure” campaign.
In response, Iran began to attack ships off the coast of the UAE in 2019. Tehran also attacked two other ships and began attempting to hijack vessels. Iran mobilized its proxies in Iraq to attack US forces in 2019.
In 2020, the US responded by killing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad. Trump stepped back from other confrontations, however, and when Iran shot down a $200 million US Global Hawk drone, he decided against strikes on the Iranian mainland.
When Trump returned to office, his new team had more skeptics about US involvement in wars abroad. This isn’t because the administration is full of isolationists, but rather, more people on the team appear to want to channel Trump’s agenda.
This means that Trump often seemed to be out of tune with some of those in his first administration. This is apparent from the way many of them were panned when jobs were being given out for the second term. In essence, Bolton and Pompeo do not seem close to Trump’s worldview today.
The new team is cautious and asks questions. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked this week about what might happen in Iran if the leaders of the regime fell from power.
“I don’t think anyone can give you a simple answer to what happens next in Iran if the supreme leader and the regime were to fall,” he said.
That indicates the US is very much aware of the complexity of regime change in Iran. Trump is also skeptical of getting involved in open-ended conflicts.
Trump warned US is 'locked and loaded'
The Trump administration ratcheted up tensions after protests broke out in Iran in late December. In early January, Trump called on the regime not to kill protesters and said the US was “locked and loaded.”
Those warnings on January 2 came and went, however, and it is now believed that Iran killed thousands of protesters from January 7-9.
Trump again posted about Iran in the middle of January, suggesting that the US would help the protesters. He also indicated that Tehran would not hang protesters.
By this time, it seems, Iran had already massacred thousands, and many people wondered whether the US would make good on its promises.
Iran’s regime spent most of January not responding to the US threats. It was focused internally. Now it seems that Tehran is getting ready to respond, however, and it feels like the pressure is building.
The regime is trying to put on a tough face, showing that it is ready for a conflict with the US and possibly with the wider region.
Iran appears to have reached out in a limited way to Turkey and some other countries, possibly hoping they can head off a war. Tehran’s other friends in Moscow and Beijing, however, don’t seem to be doing too much. Russia seems to be monitoring what might come next.
Trump prefers actions that have clear results. He wants answers from his team. If the US acts, what will it accomplish? This is the kind of question he asks.
Trump prefers decisive action, such as the raid on Maduro in Venezuela. He doesn’t want boots on the ground.
Trump is also likely hearing from Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others about what they think about any kind of action on Iran. As such, he must weigh what might happen if the US does act.