Never before seen drafts belonging to Israel’s first prime minister David Ben-Gurion warn of the illusions that can arise from a swift victory, offering insight into his strategic thinking.
On December 27, 1956, after two days of debriefing "Operation Kadesh," commonly known as the Suez Crisis, Ben-Gurion gave a short speech to the senior command of the IDF, emphasizing that the success of the operation does not necessarily reflect the conditions of future wars and could even create blind spots.
"During these two days, many enlightening things were said, at least for me, of what could be learned from the Sinai campaign,” he said. “But I want to say what cannot be learned from the Sinai. You cannot learn from it how to fight the next war."
Ben-Gurion greatly valued the IDF officers but was also aware of the limitations tied to their roles, as "professionals are too immersed in their individual details and fail to see the whole picture." Therefore, the officers’ conclusions are limited, and make it difficult to draw broad conclusions from them and their observations.
The former prime minister reviewed what distinguished the Suez Crisis to the wars that may follow it, and much of what he said then remains relevant today.
"In the next war, we may not be the attackers but the defenders," he said, stressing that the next war could be forced upon Israel, and not initiated by it.
He continued, adding that the conflict may not be against just one enemy but "several armies... In the next war, there may be more attackers and better armies" and even rules out relying on external help: "We have no basis to assume that in the next war, we will have helping forces from abroad."
He urged against excessive reliance on aerial strength alone, but stressed the importance of investing in building the Israel Air Force as a strike force, adding that the action leading to victory must be multi-dimensional.
However, Ben-Gurion’s address was mainly dedicated to a detailed warning of the next war, one that would be completely different from the Suez Crisis, and would take a heavy toll on the home front.
He challenged the sense of security that followed Israel’s quick victory, reminding the officers that Operation Kadesh had been planned to last five days.
"The next war could be a prolonged one, and a prolonged war would place a heavy burden on us," he warned, adding that "there is no certainty that we can plan for a minimum of casualties in the next war."
One of the most chilling paragraphs in the document is about Israel’s home front, describing a near accurate portrayal of the current war against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.
"In this war, it is known that the home front was excellent.This will not be the case in the next war,” he said. In the next war, “Tel Aviv will be bombed, Haifa will be bombed, and people will be killed. There is no certainty that morale will be so high.”
Ben-Gurion recognized early on what became a well-known reality in the following decades: front lines that reach population centers, and the home front becoming a critical component of the war.
“You can only believe in and trust the future if you see the hard and bitter reality as it is,” he said, emphasizing the need for Israel to see the situation as it is and “not create illusions at the expense of reality."
In his diary that same day, Ben-Gurion added another element that would be important in the years and decades to come: national unity.
"Therefore, what is needed is: enhancing air power and raising the quality of the army, morally and professionally, and also uniting the people,” he wrote. “The army must be a unifying force for the people. Even now, it is an educational force; soldiers leave the army better educated than when they entered.”
“The army must also be an example for the people, and first and foremost, the command staff, in cooperation and discipline."
Ben-Gurion: sharp, clear-sighted, relevant
Eitan Donitz, CEO of the Ben-Gurion Heritage Institute, shared that "the documents revealed here show the true figure of Ben-Gurion: sharp, clear-sighted, and more relevant than ever. Even in a time of military success, he chooses to warn against arrogance and illusions.”
“His message is clear,”Donitz said. “True strength is not measured only by victory, but by the ability to prepare correctly for the next challenge and to maintain internal unity as an integral part of national security."
Flora Pazerker, head of the Ben-Gurion Archives, added that "In today’s reality, after two and a half years of war where the military and the home front are one, Ben-Gurion’s words resonate even more.”
“The soldiers and the home front are making tremendous efforts to maintain morale, but the weariness is tough and creeping in, and sadly, Ben-Gurion’s vision has come true.”
“We are still in the midst of a turbulent, significant, and highly influential period in all areas, and it seems that many of us, like Ben-Gurion, are trying to hold on to optimism and hope that we will learn, reflect, and internalize lessons to create a different reality,” Pazerker concluded.