Twenty-two months after October 7, 2023, Israel is still bogged down in a multi-scene, regional war, with seven external fronts – some of which we started and thought that we had finished.
The war against Hezbollah ended with a ceasefire, having an international enforcement mechanism led by the Lebanese Armed Forces. Ever since the ceasefire, however, Israel has continued to strike on a weekly basis to stop Hezbollah’s repeated attempts to rebuild and establish itself throughout Lebanon.
Across the border, Syria seemed to be heading into a new era when Ahmed al-Shaara ousted Bashar al-Assad from power in a military coup and took his place. He was embraced by US President Donald Trump, and there were attempts to come to various agreements with Israel. But recently, Damascus has become a very big question mark as Israel intervened last month for the Druze population by attacking targets of the new regime in the Druze area of southern Syria and even in Damascus.
The Houthis, against whom the United States declared war and launched an aggressive air campaign, announced a ceasefire after about a month and a half with conditions that ostensibly both sides agreed to. But the Yemen-based terrorist group has broken its promise in recent weeks and has returned to threatening international shipping lanes by attacking and sinking merchant ships.
The launching of ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles at Israel was never part of that unwritten agreement, so from their perspective, they can and continue to do so.
Can Israel maintain this life cycle?
Operation Rising Lion, the 12-day war against Iran, ended with the declaration of a ceasefire by Trump without any agreement or principles that would frame the rules and conduct of Israel and Iran. What seemed like a quick military victory is quickly becoming only the first round in a campaign that is far from over.
The last but most challenging and important arena is the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip because of the issue of the hostages who are still in the hands of Hamas. IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir recently said that “Hamas is a dead organization,” but Israel has already stopped counting how many times it has “defeated” the group. We see how temporary these victories are when they don’t truly end the fighting.
Over the last few weeks, we have seen that all fronts are once again rising their heads. And for the umpteenth time, we understand that today’s military victory does not guarantee tomorrow’s peace.
WE MUST stay alert and maintain our readiness, since the enemy has not disappeared. And, just like with us, the reconstruction processes and the return to a normal routine are stronger, albeit slower, than anything else. In addition, without agreeing to political steps backed by enforcement mechanisms and commitment from all parties, we will always find ourselves in a cyclical process where it is just a question of time as to when the sequence will begin again.
That cyclical process begins with escalation and military conflict, followed by cessation (with or without an agreement), recovery/rehabilitation, threats or deterrence, and ultimately, a return to a state of war.
This is a life cycle that the State of Israel cannot afford, neither for its national security nor for the social fabric of life.