The implications of the US midterm elections for Israel could go far beyond the Republicans losing control of Congress. The defeat comes at a time of broader shifts within the Democratic Party regarding Israel, the war with Iran, and the strategic relationship between Jerusalem and Washington.
There are three key areas in which the election results could significantly affect Israeli interests: President Donald Trump’s policy toward Iran, the new balance of power in Congress, and – perhaps most importantly – the 2028 presidential election, which is already beginning to take shape against the backdrop of changing sentiment within the Democratic Party.
War with Iran: Will Trump opt for concessions or a swift military operation?
Will Trump opt for concessions or a swift military operation?
One of the clearest takeaways from the election campaign is the political price the war with Iran has exacted from the Republican Party.
“One-hundred percent of the results would have been different without the war,” a Fox News commentator said. Even Trump conceded that Iran “was part of the loss.”
Perhaps the most telling figure is that 62% of voters surveyed in exit polls said they opposed the war.
The political message to Trump is clear: The American public has little appetite for another prolonged war in the Middle East. The question is how he will translate that message into policy.
There are two possible scenarios, both of which require Israel to watch developments closely.
The first is that Trump will decide to intensify diplomatic efforts, agree to concessions in negotiations with Tehran, and attempt to present a deal as a diplomatic achievement that would allow him to extricate the United States from the conflict.
The second scenario would involve an attempt to bring the campaign to an end through a short but powerful military operation – one that would allow him to declare victory, claim that American objectives have been achieved, and rapidly scale back US involvement in the region.
In either scenario, Israel’s interests do not necessarily align with those of the White House. That gap could become one of the central sources of tension in the relationship between the two countries.
The new Congress: A growing progressive, anti-Israel wave
There is a growing progressive and anti-Israel sentiment in the composition of the next Congress. A new wave of Democratic lawmakers, some of whom hold particularly critical views of Israel and, in certain cases, explicitly anti-Israel positions, is expected to join those already serving on Capitol Hill.
The implications go beyond a change in the personalities occupying seats in the House and Senate. They also involve a shift in the balance of power and in the ability to shape the political agenda.
Democratic control of both chambers gives the party control of committee chairmanships and their agendas, as well as the House speakership and Senate leadership. This will allow Democrats to advance hearings, investigations, and legislative initiatives concerning Israeli policy, the war in Gaza, US military assistance, and the broader strategic relationship between the two countries.
To be sure, not every anti-Israel initiative will become law, and certainly not every Democratic member of Congress shares the same views. Nevertheless, the expansion of the camp critical of Israel, and its growing access to positions of influence, represent a shift that Israel cannot afford to ignore.
This development comes amid a broader trend within the Democratic Party: growing calls to reduce US military assistance to Israel, condition it on changes in Israeli policy, and even reconsider the very nature of the special relationship between the two countries.
Positions that were once considered relatively marginal within the party are now receiving a much more prominent platform.
The 2028 election: Will Mamdani become a political role model?
Will New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani become a political role model? Another challenge for Israel lies not in Washington today, but in the next presidential election.
The message many Democratic candidates may take away from the current elections is straightforward: It is possible to adopt strongly anti-Israel positions and openly criticize AIPAC while still achieving political success. In fact, in certain cases, such positions may even prove to be an electoral advantage among significant segments of the party’s base.
Candidates seeking seats in Congress or senior political positions at the state level in the coming years will be watching the success of politicians such as Michigan Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed and a new generation of Democratic House members closely. They will also be examining how these politicians have managed to make sharp criticism of Israel a central component of their political identities.
The result could be a further radicalization of the political discourse: more candidates aligned with the political camp represented by Mamdani, harsher criticism of Israel, and less willingness to defend the traditional relationship between the two countries.
And this brings us to a particularly important point: The Democratic Party will have to choose its presidential nominee in 2028. Any candidate seeking to secure the support of the party’s base will be unable to ignore this sentiment.
Even if the eventual nominee does not embrace the most extreme positions, he or she may feel compelled to adopt a significantly tougher and more critical stance toward Jerusalem than anything previously seen among Democratic presidential candidates.